CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 22, 9:28 AM EST780
FXUS61 KCLE 221428
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
928 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure over the Ohio Valley today will move to
the Mid Atlantic coast tonight as low pressure moves into the
northern Great Lakes. This low will pass north of Lake Ontario
Thursday night, dragging a cold front through the region
Thursday evening. High pressure will return Friday and Saturday
before another cold front crosses the region Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The arctic outbreak is at its peak this morning with record low
temperatures already set at Mansfield (KMFD) and other sites
are getting close. Current temperatures range from 0 to -13 F,
with Erie, PA (KERI) being the "warm" spot and Wooster (KBJJ)
being the cold spot. Mostly clear skies and relatively light
winds along with 850 mb temps between -20 and -25 C will allow
for a continued fall in temperatures through sunrise. Lows
should bottom out between -5 and -15 F, so this will be the
coldest night in 10 years (February 2015). Wind chill values are
solidly in the -15 to -25 F range, and these will become colder
through the early morning, so no changes to the Extreme Cold
Warning through 15Z.
The strong 1035 mb arctic surface high centered over the Ohio
Valley this morning will drift across the Appalachians this
afternoon and into the Mid Atlantic tonight while weakening.
This will allow the boundary layer flow to quickly back to the
SSW this morning. The lingering lake-effect snow showers and
flurries have already shifted north of Erie County, PA, and
expect these to dissipate over western NY by mid morning as the
SSW flow develops and inversion heights crash below 5000 feet.
This will lead to a dry day areawide, with the developing warm
air advection starting a warming trend. Expect highs to reach
the low to mid teens today, with a few single digit highs
lingering in NW PA.
The active NW mid/upper flow pattern will continue tonight and
Thursday as another shortwave trough drops through the western
Great Lakes tonight and through our region Thursday. This is
essentially a weak Clipper system, with the associated surface
low tracking from Lake Superior this evening to north of Lake
Ontario by Thursday night. This will drag a cold front across
the region Thursday afternoon and evening, bring another surge
of arctic air as the longwave eastern CONUS trough reloads. This
surge will not be nearly as cold, but it will still reinforce
the cold pattern and bring some light synoptic and lake-effect
snowfall.
Regarding the snowfall, mid-level warm air advection and
isentropic ascent will bring some light snow tonight, especially
over the northern tier counties. Limited moisture will keep this
very light, so only expect a coating to couple tenths of an
inch. After a lull, stronger forcing as the cold front crosses
Thursday afternoon and evening due to the passage of the mid-
level trough axis will bring light snow back to the region from
west to east. This could put down a few tenths to up to 1 inch,
however, as 850 mb temps fall to -15 C Thursday evening with
cold advection and WNW flow across Lake Erie, there will be
lake enhancement over the primary snowbelt of NE Ohio and NW
PA. HREF CAMS are suggesting a burst of heavier snow coming off
the lake with the front, so locally higher amounts are looking
possible in the snowbelt. Cannot rule out up to 4 inches in the
favored upslope areas, especially in Erie and northern Crawford
Counties in NW PA.
Lows tonight will be milder, with single digits to low teens,
with highs Thursday rising into the low/mid 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough continues to move across the CONUS with the
axis dipping down to the Gulf Coast states as a surface low pressure
system will traverse the Great Lakes through the period. Some lake
effect snow showers will be ongoing across NE OH and NW PA on
Thursday night before pushing out over Lake Erie Friday night as the
925 ridge to the south moves east of the Great Lakes. All-in-all
should result in less than a few inches of snow across the
aforementioned areas, with the higher elevations receiving the
higher end amounts. Moisture will be quick to exit as a drier air
mass moves with more west-southwesterly flow Friday night into
Saturday morning. High pressure will build to the south on Saturday
and will keep the region dry for the day.
Temperatures will rebound on Saturday with highs in the low 30s and
upper 20s for the region. Overnight lows will still be quite chilly
down in the single digits.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The drier air mass will be short lived as a weak low pressure and
cold front will sweep across the region early Sunday. This is
supported by a broad upper level trough moving across the Hudson Bay
in Canada. Another trough is slowly moving across southwest CONUS
and may interact with the northern trough and provide some support
for the early week system. Temperatures will stick around freezing
for highs through the early week, but lows will only dip down into
the low 20s/upper teens.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions are expected today through tonight as arctic
high pressure gradually moves east. Clouds will gradually
increase ahead of a cold front that will approach Thursday
morning. Some light snow is possible tonight, but this is low
confidence given the amount of dry air. The better chance for
light snow will come with the front Thursday, after the TAF
period, so kept cigs VFR through that time. This will eventually
fall to MVFR by Thursday afternoon.
SW winds of 5-10 knots early this morning will become SSW and
increase to 10-15 knots this afternoon, with occasional gusts
to 20-25 knots, before decreasing to 5-10 knots again tonight.
Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through early Thursday. Non-VFR
possible in scattered snow showers Thursday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
The Heavy Freezing Spray Warning has expired for the eastern two-
thirds of the lake as the higher waves and winds have subsided
enough in the open waters. The Ice Advisory still remains in effect
due to the cold air mass and lighter winds across the lake
overnight. Temperatures will approach freezing across the advisory
area and may support expansion of the ice coverage in the area.
Winds will be southerly at 15-25 knots through Thursday night before
shifting to the west at 10-20 knots after a trough passes through
the region late Thursday. Winds will build again to 15-25 knots
out of the southwest late Saturday ahead of another trough.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Arctic air persists through today. The coldest temperatures are
expected this morning with forecast temperatures approaching
record lows for 1/22. Below are the current record low
temperatures for 1/21-22.
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
01-21 -20(1984) -19(1985) -17(1985) -24(1985) -20(1985) -16(1985)
01-22 -12(1936) -10(1936) -10(1936) -13(1936) -9(2022) -7(1970)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM...Kennedy
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Kennedy
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 22, 9:28 AM EST---------------
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