PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 16, 5:43 PM CST812
FXUS63 KPAH 162343
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
543 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog and freezing fog are possible late tonight into early
Friday, with the greatest potential in the northern portions
of the Quad State with snow cover.
- Warmer temperatures through Friday will melt off much of the
remaining snow cover in the north.
- Rain moves through Friday night, ahead of an Arctic cold front
that may bring in the coldest air this winter behind it.
- Potential for multi-day exceptional cold with highs in the
teens and 20s and lows in the single digits to just above 10
to start the new work week, with wind chills as low as -5 to
5 early Monday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
An upper-level disturbance near the Great Lakes is bringing low
clouds to areas northeast of the Quad State, with high clouds
drifting southeastward from Iowa. Temperatures have surged today
despite the west-northwesterly flow since 500mb heights are
increasing as the trough moves off to the east. Snow covered
areas have temperatures in the low to mid 40s while most snow-
free areas have reached the 50s. A shift to very light southerly
winds tonight with warm advection could result in patchy warm
advection fog or freezing fog tonight. Models are well-aligned
on northern snow-covered areas having the best chance of
developing fog, with some models developing it across the entire
Quad State.
Highs on Friday should continue to be warm and help melt off
much of the remaining snow cover. Clouds move ahead of the
system, with rain beginning in SEMO late in the afternoon. Rain
becomes widespread for the evening and overnight hours Friday
night, lingering into Saturday in the east, totaling a quarter
to a half inch of rain.
A strong cold front moves through Friday night into Saturday
morning bringing Arctic air to the region. Temperatures will be
well above normal Sunday through Tuesday amidst CONUS-wide
troughing with highs in the upper teens to mid-20s and lows in
the single digits to just above 10 degrees. Wind chills of -2 to
8 degrees are forecast Sunday and Tuesday morning with Monday
morning dropping to -5 to 5 degrees, near Cold Weather Advisory
criteria. There are a couple models suggesting a few flurries
Sunday but support is too limited for inclusion at this stage.
Temperatures begin moderating Wednesday as the trough shifts
east and ridging builds into the Plains. Models agree on the
development of a late week storm system but differ in track,
bringing it either through the Quad State or tracking it south
of the region, with the latter currently the more likely
scenario.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
MVFR ceilings streaming southeast through Indiana should stay
east of KEVV and KOWB this evening. With calm wind and mostly
clear skies, there is concern for fog development over the
snowpacked northern half of the Quad State late tonight.
However, the moist layer is only right at the surface and south
winds will begin to pick up before sunrise. Therefore, will
limit fog to IFR levels in a TEMPO at KMVN and KEVV. South
winds should increase through the morning, reaching gusts
18-23kts through the afternoon.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 16, 5:43 PM CST---------------
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