BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 13, 9:37 PM EST490
FXUS61 KBOX 140237
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
937 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will then trend below normal Tuesday through
Thursday, then modify to near to above normal by Friday into the
weekend. Drier weather should prevail most of the workweek,
with potential for more unsettled weather by this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
935 PM Update...
* Dry and Seasonably cold tonight with lows in the 20s
The cold front that crossed the region earlier this evening with
a brief spot flurry/snow shower or two has moved east of the
region this evening. Otherwise...dry weather tonight with skies
generally most clear outside of a few stato-cu spilling over
the Berks. A colder westerly flow of air behind this evening/s
cold front will result in seasonably cold overnight low temps
mainly in the 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Turning colder and blustery.
Colder air makes more of a push across southern New England
during this time period. Low pressure over the Maritimes and a
high pressure over the Plains will maintain a persistent W to NW
flow. This will begin the trend for below normal temperatures.
Becoming much drier, so little chance for precipitation. Ocean-
effect showers are possible across the outermost coastal waters.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry with below normal temps Wed-Thurs.
* Temps then modify to slightly above normal levels by Fri into the
weekend, but likely to be accompanied by cloud cover.
* Next chance of widespread precip not until the weekend?
Details:
Dry weather with a period of below normal temperatures are expected
for Wed and Thurs with the colder air being reinforced by the
eventual passage of northern-stream shortwave trough energy coming
out of the Canadian Prairies in central Canada. This airmass does
not look to be as cold and also not nearly as windy as last week's
shot of cold air; however, we are expecting highs in the mid 20s to
near freezing with lows in the single digits to the mid teens.
Temperatures then modify by Fri into the weekend as southerly flow
increases with near to above normal temperatures (highs mid 30s to
low 40s), although it may also be accompanied by a good amt of cloud
cover.
Overall this portion of the forecast is generally a dry one. Our
next chance for significant precip may not arrive until the weekend,
as a deep 500 mb trough establishes itself across much of the
central/east-central CONUS per consensus in ensemble means. There
continue to be some ensemble members which bring weak/sheared-out
500 mb vort energy from the southern Plains states into the mid-Atlc
and Northeast but this is not well agreed upon. Will continue to
advertise Chance PoP for timing-dependent snow-to-rain showers Sat
and Sun and then adjust pending trends in the guidance.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update:
Through Tonight: High confidence.
VFR, with hit-or-miss brief flurries at absolute worst thru 01z
associated with a cold front. This front will bring winds from
initial WSW around 5-10 kt to WNW and increasing to around 10
kt.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night: High confidence.
VFR. Gusty W winds 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. A passing snow flurry thru
01z but VFR to prevail with no accum expected. Windshift from SW
to WNW around 10 kt by 02z, which continues overnight and
becomes gusty (gusts 20-25 kt) by 13-14z Tue.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR. WNW winds increase to
around 10 kt tonight, which become gusty (gusts 20-23 kt) by
13-14z.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday through Friday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
High confidence.
Through Tuesday Night...
A cold front moves across the waters overnight, which will
bring a windshift to WNW with speeds increasing to around
20-25 kt toward early Tue morning. Small Craft Advisories remain
in effect for the outer waters during this time.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of
rough seas.
Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of freezing
spray.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday
for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday
for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Loconto
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Belk/Loconto
MARINE...Belk/Loconto
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 13, 9:37 PM EST----------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
