PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 11:41 PM CST459
FXUS63 KPAH 160541
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1141 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures trend warmer through the end of the week.
- Rain moves through Friday night, ahead of an Arctic cold front
that may bring in the coldest air this winter behind it.
- Potential for multi-day exceptional cold with highs in the
teens and 20s and lows in the single digits to start the new
work week, with wind chills as low as -5 to 5 early Monday
morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025
Surface high pressure in the Ohio Valley will continue to shift
eastward. A system moving through the Great Lakes region tonight
into tomorrow is projected to keep the southward range of
flurries just outside of the Quad State to the northeast. A
quick return to southerly flow occurs Friday as low pressure
moves across Southern Canada. Temperatures reach their high
point for the week on Friday, the upper 40s to lower 50s with
ridging over the Quad State.
A southern stream system develops Friday after taking in energy
from a Southern California cutoff low, bringing rain to the
region Friday evening through Saturday morning. Amounts are
fairly limited at around a quarter to a third of an inch, and
thunder is not anticipated. A brief switchover to flurries at
the end is possible. The associated cold frontal passage
between this southern system and the Canadian storm will bring
Arctic air plunging into the region with deep troughing across
the entire CONUS area. Since rain exists early Saturday, daytime
heating should keep the flash freeze potential limited despite
the strong cold front.
Temperatures fall to well below normal for Sunday through
Tuesday with highs as low as the upper teens to lower 20s and
lows in the single digits to just above 10 Sunday night and
Monday night. Wind chills fall to near Cold Weather Advisory
criteria (0 in much of Western Kentucky, -5 elsewhere) Monday
morning as a northwesterly wind remains. The one caveat to this
is that models are not producing any appreciable snow with the
Friday/Saturday system, and the late week warmth and rain
should melt off nearly all that remains in northern portions of
the Quad State, so a lack of snow cover will limit potential
for just how cold it will get. That said, highs 15-24 and lows
4-11 with wind chills of -5 to 5 is still extremely cold and it
doesn't take record lows to get significant cold weather impacts
for anyone outdoors, especially vulnerable populations.
Temperatures start lifting Wednesday as high pressure moves to
the east and southerly flow returns. Models disagree on a system
late next week but have its center to our south. It remains to
be seen how much, if any, precipitation we might get from it.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025
Confidence in MVFR or lower ceilings reaching the area has
decreased, so the TAFs are VFR. LLWS remains an issue until
mixing begins in the morning. Occasional gusts 15-20kts are
expected through the afternoon. Fog may become a problem over
the snowpack at the northern sites, but it should hold off until
the overnight hours, just beyond this forecast period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 11:41 PM CST---------------
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