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823 FXUS64 KMOB 081143AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL543 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Thursday)Issued at 543 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025A very cold, dry airmass will continue to filter into the local area through Thursday as a large Canadian high pressure system slowly pushes southeastward. Even under mostly sunny skies during the afternoons, highs for today will only top out in 40s, and highs for tomorrow and Thursday will be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows for both tonight and Wednesday night will plummet into the 20s areawide. A Cold Weather Advisory will be in effectthrough 9 am this morning across the entire area for apparent temperatures (wind chills) in the 15 to 20 degree range. Another advisory will likely be needed for tonight for similar wind chillvalues. /96 /22&&.SHORT AND LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)Issued at 543 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025A weak ridge will move eastward Thursday night, as a potent trough swings into the Plains. Southwest flow aloft will help to filter in moisture, while several shortwaves round the based of the trough. Meanwhile, surface cyclogenesis will occur off the southeast Texas Coast and this low will slide along the coast through the first part of the short term period. Rain chances willincrease from west to east late Thursday night and continue through much of the day on Friday. There remains considerable uncertainty with regard to the type of precipitation expected, at least initially. Temperatures Thursday evening will fall into the mid to upper 30s prior to the onset of precip and increasing WAA as the surface lows moves closer to the area. Drier air in the lower levels will increase the potential for surface temperatures to fall to near freezing just as the precip begins to move into the area. This will set the stage for a brief period of snow/sleet, generally across areas north of US 84. WAA will quickly warm the vertical column early Friday morning, and any wintry precip will transition to all rain before any accumulationsor impacts occur. One thing to keep in mind is that just a 1 to 2degree difference in temperature could change the precipitation type, so this is something we'll continue to monitor. Trends have been in our favor keeping all wintry precip accumulations north ofour area, but still, something to check back on. Rain will continue across the entire area through much of the day Friday, with highs warming into the lower 40s across the north to 60s along the coast. Rain chances will come to an end Friday nightas the surface low moves east of the area. The trough will swing through the region on Saturday, with flow aloft becoming northwesterly. This will keep dry and cold conditions in place through the weekend, with highs on Saturday only warming into the 40s and overnight lows falling into the 20s. Sunday will be a little warmer, though temps will struggle to warm into the lower 50s. Similar conditions are anticipated for the start of the new work week, with highs into the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s. /73&&.MARINE...Issued at 543 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025Moderate northerly flow will continue through Wednesday night. Winds will shift to easterly by Thursday night. By Friday, a stormsystem will pass along the Gulf Coast bringing a strong onshore flow and building seas to the marine zones. A Small Craft Advisorywill likely become necessary from the Friday through Saturday morning timeframe. Winds quickly return back to an offshore flow by the weekend in the wake of a cold front. /96 /22&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 49 26 51 38 60 32 48 29 / 0 0 0 60 100 50 0 0 Pensacola 49 29 51 42 64 36 48 32 / 0 0 0 20 90 70 0 0 Destin 52 32 53 43 65 40 51 35 / 0 0 0 10 80 80 10 0 Evergreen 47 22 49 32 51 31 46 24 / 0 0 0 40 100 70 0 0 Waynesboro 46 21 48 32 43 29 46 23 / 0 0 0 80 100 20 0 0 Camden 44 20 46 31 43 29 43 21 / 0 0 0 60 100 60 0 0 Crestview 50 23 51 34 61 35 48 26 / 0 0 0 20 80 80 0 0 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>266.FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
