CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 13, 10:04 PM EST265
FXUS61 KCLE 140304
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1004 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure lingers across the Great Lakes region
through at least Tuesday night before high pressure builds in on
Wednesday. A low pressure system moves across the northern Great
Lakes Friday night with a cold front crossing the region on
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Some more notable lake effect snow showers are starting to push
onto land over Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania with
the best snow in Lake County and far northern Erie County, PA
near North East. However, the appearance on radar is more
showery vs. consistent bands and while there will be windows of
lower visibility, moderate showers, the forecast still appears
overdone with accumulations overnight. (Although perhaps a bit
underdone in Ohio...) Therefore, will go with 1-4" through 7 AM
in Erie County, PA and Trace to 2" elsewhere in the winter
headline areas. The main snow show for the region continues to
focus on Tuesday.
Previous Discussion...
Headline changes made today:
*Issued Winter Weather Advisory for Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula,
and Crawford PA counties for Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning/afternoon. End time varies depending on county.
*Lake Effect Snow Warning for Erie, PA remains unchanged.
Lake effect clouds have been eroding more than expecting from the
south as a high pressure ridge and associated dry air expands from
the south. A good chunk of the forecast area is actually under sunny
skies (except Northwest Pennsylvania...sorry!)...Good time to catch
up on that vitamin D!
Colder air aloft should filter in with westerly flow, allowing for
inversion heights to gradually deepen this evening through tonight,
with moderate lake-induced instability developed by Tuesday morning.
Already starting to starting to see better returns on radar
reflectivity over Lake Erie the past hour or so as those colder
temperatures move in. Warmer Lake Erie temperatures and the
development of a single primary snow band should result in a lake-
aggregate surface trough. This should push the snow band a bit
farther north, primarily impacting Erie, PA this evening through
tonight, with about 2-5" of snowfall accumulation. Most of this
should be in the northeast part of the county. Outside of the
lake effect snow, temperatures and wind will combine for fairly
chilly conditions as wind chills down to near -5 are expected
late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Meanwhile, an upper-level trough builds in from the northwest,
crossing the Great Lakes region tonight and the local forecast area
during the day Tuesday. This is when we will have the coldest
air aloft, deepest inversion heights, and greatest lake-induced
instability. Lake effect snow is expected to gradually
intensify Tuesday morning as it snows over Lake Erie and mainly
Erie, PA before it guided inland by the upper-level trough,
affecting much the typical snow belt region in Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania. The best snowfall accumulations are
expected Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening when 2-4" of
snow should fall across the entire snow belt, with locally
higher amounts. Snowfall rates of around 1"/hr will be possible.
Windy conditions may also produce blowing and drifting of snow,
especially for locations within a few miles of Lake Erie where
wind gusts of up to 35 mph is possible. Outside the snow belt,
should see brief areawide snow showers Tuesday afternoon/evening
associated with the upper- level trough and surface trough.
Latest model- guidance has trended towards more favorable
conditions for snow squalls with this system as it shows a solid
pressure change couplet with the front, high low-level lapse
rates, and moderate low- level CAPE. Modeled reflectivity from
CAMs also looks "squally", especially after 18Z Tuesday. While
snowfall accumulations (outside the snowbelt) are expected to be
an inch or less, these snow squalls can produce significant
impacts due to cold air and road temperatures and the short
duration in which snow falls within snow squalls.
As the upper-level trough departs to the east Tuesday night,
should see a brief decline in snow showers early Tuesday night before
low-level moisture associated with upstream Great Lakes builds
back in later Tuesday night. Snowfall rates will be quite a bit
less than what we see Tuesday afternoon/evening. It will be
another chilly night with wind chills down into the low single
digits or just below zero.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Winter Weather Advisories and the Lake Effect Snow Warning continues
into Wednesday for all but Geauga County. Northwest flow aloft
continues as surface winds start to back ahead of high pressure
building into the Ohio Valley. The moisture depth will become
increasingly shallow, especially as any moisture contribution from
Lake Huron shifts east of the area but given the dendritic growth
zone focused in the lowest 5K feet expect snow to continue. The
snows will tend to be light to moderate but could see some
enhancement and even potentially a more west to east band where low
level convergence in maximized ahead of the building high. The
backing flow may even allow some moisture contribution from Lake
Michigan to move across Lake Erie and enhance snows for a period of
time. The snow is expected to become focused more to the north with
time which is why the Advisory for Geauga County does not go as
long. Given the continued cold conditions, snow ratios will be
efficient at near or over 20:1.
Some sun is expected on Wednesday as high pressure builds in from
the south. The clearing and light winds early on will allow
temperatures to drop quickly Wednesday night and northwest Ohio may
achieve overnight lows before midnight then warm as southwesterly
winds and warm advection increase late. Many inland areas will see
wind chills drop below zero again on Wednesday night while actual
lows range from about 5 to 15 degrees.
Another upper level trough dives south out of Canada on Wednesday
night with low pressure passing near James Bay. A narrow ribbon of
moisture with isentropic ascent develops late Wednesday night into
Thursday AM with light snow expanding Thursday afternoon especially
across NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania. Light accumulations of up to 2
inches are possible in NE Ohio with 1-3 inches in NW Pennsylvania
through Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term starts with brief ridging and temperatures warming to
near normal values in the mid 30s on Friday and Saturday. Skies will
be partly cloudy on Friday but increasing southwesterly winds will
keep wind chill values in the 20s. As low pressure passes north of
the Great Lakes on Friday night, precipitation will blossom across
the Ohio Valley and spread northeast. Temperatures are expected to
dip into the lower 30s as precipitation develops so either a cold
rain or rain/snow mix is the most likely precipitation type at this
time. Models are not depicting a warm nose aloft so it looks like a
smooth transition to either rain or snow without other mixed
precipitation types at this time.
The next cold front arrives behind this system on Sunday with
temperatures trending much colder for the start of next week. Sunday
will be a transition day before the arctic air arrives Monday into
Tuesday. Long range models do show some spread with regards to the
evolution of what will likely be a broad and deep upper level trough
swinging south out of Canada. Nearly all long range models show
850mb temperatures of -20 to -25 but not at the same time. This
looks to bring very cold temperatures to the area during the Monday
to Wednesday time frame. We will also be monitoring for another
round of light snow Sunday night into Monday as low pressure tracks
up the east side of the Appalachians.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Lake effect clouds and snow are sagging south into the airspace
this evening. Snow has been intermittent at KERI to start but
will slowly develop into a more persistent lake effect event for
the terminal and conditions will trend to constant MVFR and then
constant IFR, if not lower on Tuesday morning. For KTOL, lower
ceilings are sagging south from Michigan and should be in place
in the next hour or so. Otherwise, low VFR or MVFR ceilings will
take some time to push south across the area, entering toward
midnight or later. Lake effect snow should impact KCLE and KYNG
with time as lake effect clouds sink south. A band of snow
showers are expected to develop and move across the area on
Tuesday with significant visibility drops to low MVFR or even
IFR. Put in some timing for that period of snow but there could
be some concern for even low visibility, depending on possible
snow squall development. Winds will be generally westerly with
20 to 25 kt gusts.
Outlook...Non-VFR in lake effect snow will continue through
Thursday across the snow belt of Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. Non-VFR is possible with rain and snow areawide
Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Another push of cold air will arrive across Lake Erie overnight
through Tuesday morning with the arrival of an arctic cold front.
West southwest winds of 20-30 knots continue through Tuesday morning
then shift to the northwest as a trough over the lake pushes inland.
Small Craft Advisories extend into Wednesday and may need to go
longer as unsettled conditions continue through the week. Ice
continues to grow and Small Craft Advisories are no longer being
issued west of Vermilion due to the ice coverage.
The elevated wind conditions are also resulting in occasional low
water levels on the western basin. Water levels are expected to be a
concern through Tuesday morning until the wind shifts to more
northwesterly.
Some freezing spray is possible this week, mainly on Tuesday when
the coldest air will be over the region. Flow being primarily down
the long fetch of the lake though is allowing the warmer water to
modify the temperatures and keep temperatures generally in the lower
20s. Would like to see temperatures a little colder before heavy
freezing spray becomes a concern.
Winds back to southwesterly on Wednesday as high pressure builds
into the Ohio Valley. Any decrease in winds will be brief as
southwesterly winds ramp up again on Wednesday night into the 15-30
knot range ahead of low pressure crossing Ontario. High pressure
builds into the Ohio Valley again on Friday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 4 PM EST
Wednesday for OHZ012-014-089.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for OHZ013.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST
Thursday for PAZ001-002.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 PM EST
Wednesday for PAZ003.
MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ142>144-
162>164.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ145-146.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...KEC
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 13, 10:04 PM EST---------------
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