ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 11, 6:49 AM EST518
FXUS61 KILN 111149
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
649 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow will come to an end this morning. High pressure will
then build in this afternoon and pass off to the east on
Sunday. A cold front will move through Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Radar shows the back edge of the shield of snow making its way
across the forecast area. Some additional snow showers coming
off Lake Michigan could affect west central into central Ohio
but that will end by midday. It appears that breaks will develop
in the clouds during the afternoon except for perhaps central
Ohio.
Highs will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Surface ridge axis will translate across the region tonight with
southerly flow returning on the back side. This will allow lower
clouds to come back into the area filling in any breaks that
developed during the day. Additional clouds will spread in from
the west on Sunday ahead of a short wave and cold front that
will be approaching the region.
Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper teens. Highs will rise
into the lower to mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For Sunday night into Monday, a clipper system will move
through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The moisture will be
rather shallow per model soundings, with depths to near or just
below the level required to produce snowflakes. While PoPs are
low with the paltry forcing involved, have included a slight
chance of flurries or freezing drizzle Sunday night due to the
vertical temp profile and low-end PoP.
Arctic air filters in behind the front on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures will likely only reach into the teens during the day
with lows falling into the single digits at night. Radiational
cooling conditions won't be ideal; however a 5-10 mph breeze could
get our wind chills close to the Cold Weather Advisory threshold.
Will keep a mention of this in the HWO product, with Tuesday night
being the coldest night (temps near or just below zero).
Modest warm air advection commences Thursday into Friday as heights
rise to our west and zonal flow picks up ahead of a developing short
wave over the northern plains and upper Midwest. Most of our CWA
could see a return to slightly above freezing temperatures by the
end of the period on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Snow will come to an end early in the TAF period which will
allow visibilities to return to VFR. Generally MVFR ceilings to
start will lift to VFR during the early part of the period as
well except at the Columbus terminals where it will likely be
after 18Z before that improvement occurs. West winds will
increase to 10 kt or greater during the day.
MVFR ceilings will redevelop and spread northeast after 00Z.
Winds will weaken and back to the south.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are likely Sunday. MVFR ceilings
likely and MVFR to IFR visibilities possible Sunday night into
Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 11, 6:49 AM EST---------------
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