ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 7, 9:14 PM EST807
FXUS61 KILN 080214
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
914 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air will be in place through the week. A weak disturbance
will move through on Wednesday. Another system will come through
Friday into Friday night bringing accumulating snow to the
region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Very light returns continue to show up on our three TDWRs, so
some light snow/ flurries are still floating around across the
CWA. Have maintained at least a mention of flurries in grids
overnight and into Wednesday.
Trended temperatures a tad warmer than earlier- thick cloud
cover seems to inhibiting radiational cooling processes from
tanking our temps. Still- weak signal for at least the low level
deck to break up after midnight and we might cool a bit more
efficiently despite mid/high clouds lingering. Overnight lows
still fall to the teens/single digits. Definitely don't
recommend staying outside for very long tonight and be sure to
bring any outdoor animals inside or provide a warm place with
unfrozen water.
Given very cold temperatures, some refreeze on roadways is
definitely possible overnight. Take care if walking across
parking lots/ sidewalks or driving.
Previous discussion--> Flurries will continue at times through
the overnight hours. There is just enough forcing that with the
cold temperatures, if there is cloud cover there will at least
be some potential for flurries.
While cloud cover is expected for many areas overnight, any
breaks in the clouds will allow temperatures to drop rapidly
given the snow cover and lighter winds. The best chance for
this is across portions of southeast Indiana, portions of
northern Kentucky, and portions of southwest Ohio which will not
have quite as much of a lake influence. Due to this, trended
temperatures a little cooler in these areas. Temperatures and
apparent temperatures will stay below the cold weather advisory
criteria and therefore no headlines are planned at this time
for tonight. No headlines are expected tonight, unless cloud
cover trends change where there looks to be more breaks in the
clouds and subsequently colder temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak disturbance will bring the potential for some light snow
Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Northeastern portions of the
region including central Ohio and west central Ohio will have
the best chance of any light accumulations of just a tenth or
two, however other locations will have more of a potential for
flurries.
Going into Wednesday night precipitation will taper off and
clouds will start to clear out some, especially across
southwestern portions of the region. This is also where the
winds will be lightest. Given the snow cover as well,
temperatures will likely drop very quickly and a lot in any area
where there is clearing. At this time limited the lowest
temperatures to negative five and then slightly lower on
apparent temperatures, however will have to monitor cloud
trends. A cold weather advisory will likely be needed in the
future for Wednesday night, however decided to hold off on this
shift as to not create any confusion for when the coldest air is
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure will reside over the region on Thursday.
Although skies will be mostly sunny, a very cold start, along with
snow cover across much of the area, will keep high temperatures
down. Highs will range from the upper teens to the lower 20s.
Mostly clear skies Thursday evening will give way to increasing
clouds from the west overnight ahead of the next weather system.
Lows will occur early with clouds being few and winds being the
lightest, especially over the snowpack. Then, some warming will
occur later in the night as southerly flow increases. Lows will
range from the single digits to the lower teens.
A digging long wave mid level trough will ingest some southern
stream mid level energy to bring the likelihood of snow to the
region later Friday into Friday night. WAA/isentropic lift ahead of
an advancing cold front will result in about 1 to 3 inches of snow
which will affect the afternoon and evening commute. With
temperatures remaining below freezing, there will be slick spots on
untreated surfaces. Will continue to message this weather system in
the HWO.
Under a northwest flow pattern aloft, we will be in the wake of
Friday's system on Saturday, with high pressure eventually building
back into the area by Saturday night. It will remain mostly cloudy
on Saturday with cold air being reinforced. Could be a few flurries
in the CAA pattern, but will hold off for now to see if confidence
in that increases. Highs will range from the lower to mid 20s north
to near 30 south. Lows will fall into the 15 to 20 degree range.
On Sunday, southerly flow will increase once again ahead of a
clipper system diving. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, highs
will rise into the upper 20s to the lower 30s.
For Sunday night into Monday, aforementioned clipper system will
move through the region. This will bring another chance of snow.
Highest PoPs at this time will be across the north and northeast.
After lows in the 20s, highs will be back into the upper 20s to the
lower 30s.
In the wake of the clipper system Monday night into Tuesday, another
surge of cold air is expected. After lows in the single digits and
lower teens, highs will only warm into the upper teens to the lower
20s. Although skies will be partly cloudy, the cold airmass may
support a few flurries.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGs across the region at the start of the TAF period may
briefly lift to VFR, particularly in the southwest near the
Tri-State, during the early morning hours Wednesday. There is a
weak signal for patchy fog along and southeast of I-71, so have
included a tempo 5SM at KLUK and KCVG. Might end up needing at
ILN as well, but winds will be a tad stronger, so held of for
now.
MVFR CIGs return to all sites on Wednesday, with periodic
flurries through the morning and early afternoon hours. Snow
showers will move through central Ohio off of the Lakes, so have
included periods of -SHSN and -SN at the far eastern sites, KCMH
and KLCK Wednesday afternoon.
Winds for the most part will be out of the west/northwest, less
than 10 knots through the period.
OUTLOOK...
MVFR ceilings are likely to continue into Wednesday afternoon,
possibly lingering into Wednesday night. MVFR to IFR ceilings
and visibilities possible Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM... /CA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...CA
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 7, 9:14 PM EST---------------
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