PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 7, 11:21 PM CST731
FXUS63 KPAH 080521
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1121 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal cold locks in for the rest of the week. Single
digits and teens are forecast for low temperatures tonight and
tomorrow night...with coldest wind chills around zero in our
north to around 10 degrees in our south.
- Accumulating snowfall chances are increasing for Friday,
including the chances for elevated impacts.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2025
Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2025
Our arctic blast of cold air will help us realize the coldest
temperatures thus far these next 24 to 48 hours. Air temperature
lows will range from the single digits to teens, with associated
apparent temperatures ranging from around zero in our north, to
around 10 degrees in our south.
The cold air mass is also very dry and eventually, high pressure
moves overtop the area and helps the dry air break that ribbon
of low level moisture that has kept cloud cover hovering.
That'll help in the night-time temperature drop, esp tmrw nite,
as the clouds have been and may continue to be stubborn with
their full dispersion until the high centers overhead.
All eyes are on the week ending storm that comes in behind that
aforementioned high pressure's departure. It'll be primarily a
Friday event, but snow chances begin as early as late Thursday
night in our southwest, and then spread over the area in
entirety Friday, before pushing through and then departing the
east Friday night. The models are trending higher with our snow
event, with the NBM upticking to close to 2 inches in our north,
and 4 inches along our southern border. This is using modest
one tenth to one third of an inch liquid qpf equivalents, with
similarly modest 10 to 12 to 1 ratios. Some modeling (GFS)
suggests upwards to 0.45" or better liquid equivalent. The
isentropic warm/moist advection is strong, with a solid 12 hours
of 3+ G/KG specific humidity advection in the lower 280s K snow
bearing layer. That along with the incoming upper jet could
help buffet those current projections and supports the NBM
upwards tick. Even the drier EC/NAM has upticked with its
northward extend of the pcpn shield...our main mitigating
consideration of higher qpf totals as the actual low tracks so
far to the south of us.
After that, the weekend looks mainly dry and stays below normal
with seasonally cold lows in the teens and 20s and highs in the
30s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2025
As high pressure approaches the region from the NW, MVFR low
stratus and pockets of light snow showers or flurries will
erode from NW to SE overnight through the morning hours. Trended
a bit slower on the clearing at OWB until the afternoon based on
trends in the MOS guidance. Winds will be steady from the W-NW
around 4-8 kts, becoming light and variable tonight under mostly
clear skies.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 7, 11:21 PM CST---------------
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