JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 7, 1:20 PM EST607
FXUS63 KJKL 071820
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
120 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures will persist through the next week,
with apparent temperatures potentially bottoming out near zero
in a few locations around dawn Thursday, and again overnight
Thursday night.
- A weak weather system may bring light snow accumulations to the
area Friday into Saturday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 120 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2025
Flurries are falling at many locations northeast of US-421 and
are forecast to continue on and off for the remainder of the day.
Forecast highs were nudged up to a few degrees colder for this
afternoon due to persistent cloud cover. Look for widespread
highs in the 20s at lower elevations but remaining in the 10s over
the higher mountains near the Virginia border.
UPDATE Issued at 1010 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2025
Weak returns on regional radar as well as surface observations
indicate widespread very light flurries falling across many
locations northeast of US-421. Flurries are also noted across
parts of central Kentucky and may impact locations southwest of
US-421 at times through the day. Impacts and accumulation from
this activity should be negligible. Main changes with this update
were to increase cloud cover and flurry chances as per observational
trends and persistent low-level moisture in the northwest upslope
flow.
UPDATE Issued at 723 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2025
With widespread low level cloud blanketing the area overnight,
temperatures have not fallen off nearly as much as previously
forecast. In fact, temperatures across the area have been 5 to 8
degrees warmer than previous forecast. Therefore, the latest obs
were used to freshen up the hourly temperature/dewpoint/humidity
grids and this mornings low temperatures. In spite of this, the
forecast for today overall is still on track, as the
aforementioned cloud cover should keep temperatures from rising
enough to overtake currently forecast daytime maxes. The updated
grids have been saved and sent to NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2025
A much quieter pattern in place across the area, after our recent
winter storm has finally departed to our east. Moist northwest flow
aloft will keep widespread cloud cover in place across eastern
Kentucky through Wednesday. Scattered snow flurries will fall from
these clouds early this morning as the incoming moist flow interacts
with our terrain, especially east of the weather office. These
flurries should finally move out of the area after the sun comes up
this morning. More rounds of flurries will be on tap Tuesday night
and Wednesday, as another stream of moisture off Lake Michigan makes
its way into our area and weak upslope flow commences yet again.
There was good agreement amongst several short term forecast models
regarding persistent clouds and rounds of flurries for our area into
mid-week. Strong cold air advection will keep frigid temperatures in
place across our area for the next couple of days as well. Highs
will likely only make it into the 20s across the area today and
Wednesday. Tonights lows will very cold again, with minimum values
in the low to mid-teens expected. Please be on the look for slick
spots on area roadways where melted snow and ice refreezes early
this morning, especially on bridges and overpasses.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 410 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2025
Upslope cold air advection should be ongoing at the start of the
period, with clouds and flurries still lingering, especially over
the eastern portion of the area. Surface high pressure will move
into KY from the west during Wednesday night, and clouds and
flurries are expected to shrink eastward as this happens. The
extent to which clouds break up and winds die down as the high
approaches will determine how cold it gets. Valleys with snow
cover could drop to around zero if clouds break up and winds die
down sufficiently. As the high passes over, mostly sunny skies can
finally be expected to return on Thursday. The high will depart to
our east on Thursday night and the next weather system heading in
from the west will begin to show itself in the form of increasing
clouds overnight. Radiational cooling will depend on how quickly
the clouds arrive, but there is potential again for the coldest
snow covered valleys to bottom out near zero if clouds arrive
slowly.
This next system will result from an upper level trough dropping
southeast out of south central Canada, crossing the Midwest, and
potential pairing with an opening upper low coming out of the Baja
region. The southern wave will support a surface low tracking near
the Gulf Coast, sending moisture northward ahead of the
approaching, unifying upper trough. Models are persistent in
generating mainly light precipitation for our area (as snow),
with heavier precipitation remaining further south. Our POP peaks
out at least in the likely category on Friday night. A reinforcing
push of cold air arrives behind the system for the weekend. A
weaker wave traveling through the rapid flow aloft could bring an
uptick in light snow for flurries for Sunday night into Monday,
but there is much more uncertainty with that feature.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2025
MVFR ceilings are expected to persist through the period due to
persistent northwest upslope flow and a shallow layer of low-level
moisture. Flurries or a very light snow can be expected at times
as well this afternoon, primarily east of I-75. After a lull this
evening, a disturbance is expected to bring more widespread
flurries or very light snow tonight into Wednesday. Winds will
remain westerly to variable around 5 kts or less.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 7, 1:20 PM EST---------------
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