IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 1, 10:10 AM EDT522
FXUS63 KIWX 011410
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1010 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers slowly arriving through today, lingering into the
overnight hours.
- Frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms next week.
- Turning cooler late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
An upper-level low over Missouri early this morning will continue
to slowly track east-northeast. Moisture transport from the Gulf is
ample, per water vapor imagery, with a comma shape developing on
satellite as the surface low eventually occludes. High pressure
lingering over the Mid-Atlantic has slowed the time of arrival for
rain today, but I do expect rain to reach northwest Ohio prior
to sunset. The chance for thunder has been pretty mediocre
leading up to this moment, and parameters remain poor.
Therefore, have jumped off the porch and removed thunder for
this event.
Circling back to moisture transport for a moment, HREF PWATS have
decreased slightly over the past 24 hours but remain unseasonably
high near 1.5 inches (90th percentile for DTX sounding climatology
is 1.31 inches; 1.48 inches at ILX). Boundary parallel flow along
the cold/occluding front will present some risk of training but in
the absence of convection, the overall flood risk low. Storm total
rainfall is forecast to range from about 0.50 to 1 inch.
Showers taper off soon after sunrise Sunday over northwest Ohio;
dry elsewhere.
The in-house blend remains overzealous for the chance of
showers and storms Monday associated with a low moving through
the far Northern Plains. Surface high pressure locally looks to
keep this rain chance at bay until at least sunset over
northwest Indiana. This will be a target of opportunity in the
days ahead. For now, have done my best to reduce POPs with
neighbors for the daytime Monday. The better chance for showers
and storms is overnight.
A ridge off the southwest US amplifies in the days that follow,
sending active west and northwest flow through the Midwest. This is
punctuated by a deep trough sweeping through Wednesday, with a
widespread chance of showers and storms followed by cooler
temperatures to finish the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Area of rain advancing slowly north and also somewhat west from
eastern IL into central/southern IN. Returns across N IL are
barely reaching the ground given dry low levels. Given this and
the overall movement, have slowed down pops further with
measurable precip likely not reaching far W/SW areas until
closer to 18Z and then advancing slowly east from there as the
upper low moves into the region. Adjusted pops to reflect these
trends. May need to make some further adjustments for later
today into tonight, but will address those with the afternoon
package.
Temperatures remain problematic as extensive mid/upper level
cloud cover is advancing across the area, but thin nature is
allowing for heating across the area and with the further delay
in precip arrival may still be a touch too cool for highs.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Midlevel trough and associated low level moisture convergence
will generate rain across the area late this afternoon. Decided
to remove thunder based on bulk of latest guidance indicating
virtually no instability. However, still expect a relatively
quick transition to low MVFR and IFR ceilings this evening.
Concensus guidance still indicating LIFR ceilings possible at
KSBN overnight but will hold just above for now. Slightly higher
ceilings anticipated at KFWA but IFR still appears increasingly
likely for a time tonight.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 1, 10:10 AM EDT---------------
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