MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 3, 5:25 AM CST ...New AVIATION...486
FXUS64 KMOB 031125
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
525 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2025
VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period, along with
northerly winds from 5 to 10 knots, with occasional gusts to near
18 knots along the coast. /22
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2025/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday night)
Issued at 327 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2025
A weak cold front passing through the area early this morning will
be followed by a surface ridge extending from south-central Canada
to the northeast Gulf through Saturday afternoon. An upper trough
passing over the Rocky Mountains Saturday morning will dive
southeastward, resulting in an upper closed low pressure system
developing over the southern Great Plains by late Saturday night.
The surface ridge will slide eastward Saturday night as surface
cyclogenesis develops across Oklahoma in a association with the
upper low. With moisture returning on the backside of the ridge
along with low-level isentropic lift, we expect a 20-30% chance of
rain showers to develop after midnight west of the Alabama River.
Temperatures will be mild today due to ample sunshine in the wake
of the weak front, with highs today ranging from the upper 50s to
mid 60s, or about 2 to 5 degrees above normal. In contrast, highs
on Saturday will be 2 to 5 degrees below normal and remain in the
50s. Lows tonight should drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s most
locations, with upper 30s along our coastal communities. With the
return flow Saturday night, lows will ramp upwards into 40s, with
lower 50s along our coastal communities. These temperatures are
about 5 to 12 degrees above normal. The rip current risk will
remain LOW through the period. /22
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2025
An fairly strong upper level shortwave trough moves out of the
Central Plains States to the Mid-Mississippi Valley region Sunday
and Sunday night and then zips across the eastern states Monday
and Monday evening. A weaker disturbance in the base of the
broader trough moves east across our area on Sunday, with the
stronger upper dynamics associated with the more northern trough
moving east across our area Sunday night. A surface low over
Oklahoma early Sunday morning progresses east across the
Ohio/Mississippi River confluence by late Sunday night, bringing a
strong cold front through our forecast area late Sunday night
into early Monday morning.
The return flow in advance of the front and would normally be
anticipated to bring a steady improvement in deep layer moisture
and increased instability ahead of the approaching front, however
this does not appear that it will be the case this time. Deep
layer moisture does indeed improve over the area, but the existing
airmass will be very dry and enough of a return does not appear
to be in the cards at this time. As such, model instability looks
to remain very low across the area with the passage of the front.
We will continue to monitor this though, especially due to the
fact that kinematics will actually be fairly strong. *IF* we are
able to get better instability than currently expected, there
could be a potential for some strong (maybe even severe) storms in
association with the frontal passage.
There may be a few showers early on Sunday in association with the
weaker disturbance in the base of the broader upper trough, but
rain chances go up late in the day Sunday and particularly
overnight into early Monday morning as the surface front moves
across the area. PoPs Sunday night look to be essentially 100
percent across the entire area. PoPs quickly diminish Monday
morning, but kept a small PoP (20 percent or less) east of I-65
for Monday morning. Dry and rather cold conditions are expected in
the wake of the front through Wednesday night and probably into
the day on Thursday, but there are some differences in the timing
of the next approaching system (that will primarily affect our
area just beyond the forecast period that ends at the end of the
day Thursday [00z/FRI]). A few of the Global Models (albeit the
less often used and sometimes less reliable GEM and ICON) actually
bring some precipitation associated with a potentially developing
Gulf low into our area by late Wednesday night into Thursday. If
this were to be the case, we could be looking at some wintry
precipitation for our area at the very end of the extended period
(late Wednesday night into Thursday). We will continue to monitor
this closely. Please see the NOTE at the end of the extended
discussion.
High temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s
ahead of the front, but temperatures will then fall sharply for
the remainder of the extended period. Daytimes highs probably wont
make it out of the 40s Monday through Thursday of next week.
Sunday night temps will fall to the lower 30s northwest zones and
low/mid 40s southeast zones as the front moves through, then much
colder overnight lows Monday night through Wednesday night with
lows in the 20s for most locations, lower 30s along the immediate
coast. We may reach Cold Weather Advisory conditions for Monday
night, Tuesday night and Wednesday night when apparent
temperatures drop to the teens well inland to the mid 20s at the
immediate coast. In general, our Cold Weather Advisory criteria
are for apparent temperature values of 11-20 over interior areas
and 14-25 for the coastal counties.
NOTE: We will have to keep a close eye out for the potential of
the Gulf low mentioned above to bring precipitation to our area
just beyond the extended period (Thursday night into Friday, and
possibly into Saturday of next week). Both the EURO and the GFS
indicate this as a possibility, and given that overnight lows look
to still be in the 20s for most locations Thursday night (and
Friday night) and around 30 at the coast, this could be in the
form of wintry precipitation. We will be getting a better idea
with regard to this potential. DS/12
MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2025
A cold front will move across the marine zones this morning,
bringing a light to moderate offshore flow through early Saturday.
A light easterly flow Saturday afternoon will shift southeasterly
Saturday night, followed by a moderate to strong onshore flow on
Sunday ahead of a stronger cold front approaching from the west. A
moderate to strong offshore flow is expected on Monday in the
wake of the front. A small craft advisory will likely be needed by
late this weekend into early next week. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 64 37 58 49 71 36 48 26 / 0 0 0 20 30 100 0 0
Pensacola 64 40 59 52 70 44 56 30 / 0 0 0 10 20 90 10 0
Destin 65 42 60 52 70 49 61 32 / 0 0 0 10 20 90 20 0
Evergreen 62 31 56 41 69 38 48 24 / 0 0 0 10 30 100 10 0
Waynesboro 61 31 54 43 70 31 43 24 / 0 0 0 20 60 100 0 0
Camden 57 28 52 40 67 32 49 24 / 0 0 0 20 50 100 0 0
Crestview 64 32 59 42 70 44 56 26 / 0 0 0 10 20 90 20 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 3, 5:25 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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