JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 2, 12:51 AM EST316
FXUS63 KJKL 020551
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1251 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winter cold returns to start the new year and continues through
at least the next week.
- A weak, fast-moving weather system may bring light snow
accumulations late Thursday night into Friday, especially to
northern and high-elevation areas.
- A significant storm system is becoming increasingly likely for
Sunday into Monday, and is expected to bring a mix of wintry
precipitation types for most if not all of eastern Kentucky.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 AM EST THU JAN 2 2025
No significant changes to the forecast with mainly just the
inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with
this update. Any lingering flurries will dry up over the next hour
or so. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 640 PM EST WED JAN 1 2025
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure trying to build into the area
from the southwest while some boundary layer cyclonic flow remains
for eastern Kentucky. This flow is helping the low clouds and some
very light pcpn in the form of sprinkles and flurries still
affecting eastern parts of the JKl CWA. CAA will be continuing so
temperatures through the column will soon be cold enough for all
snow flurries with any of the lingering pcpn. Have tweaked the
PoPs through the rest of the night per the latest radar imagery
and CAMs guidance. Otherwise, temperatures are generally in the
lower 30s through the area while dewpoints are in the low to mid
20s, amid west to northwesterly winds of 5 to 10 mph with a few
higher gusts. Accordingly, have updated the T/Td/Sky grids per
the current obs and trends. These minor adjustments have been sent
to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST WED JAN 1 2025
Cyclonically curved upper flow persists through the short term with
the jet stream locked in over the area, keeping an active weather
pattern over the region with disturbances quickly moving through
the area.
Cold advection and associated snow shower activity slowly winds down
by late this evening, with weak warm advection commencing by
Thursday morning. However, models depict continued low-level
moisture remaining such that flurries may remain through much of
Thursday morning or into the afternoon before completely ending.
However, low clouds likely remain over the area but beginning to
thin and rise in height with time through the day Thursday. Clouds
then increase again from the west late Thursday, with light snow
developing after midnight with a clipper system diving southeast
across the Ohio Valley, bringing the next round of light
accumulating snow to the region into Friday.
Lows will fall into the 20s tonight area-wide, and with at least
some partial clearing and weak warm advection temperatures will
climb back into the mid- to upper 30s for highs Thursday. Lows in
the 20s are expected again Thursday night, with just how low
temperatures fall in the eastern and northeastern valleys dependent
on how fast clouds move in during the evening. Nevertheless, the
temperature profile will favor all snow for the precipitation type
late Thursday night as the clipper system begins to impact the
area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 PM EST WED JAN 1 2025
Friday, a quick moving clipper system will likely produce a quick
dusting to half an inch of snow across eastern Kentucky, with breezy
west-northwest winds, gusting up to 20-25 mph during the afternoon.
Highs will likely be in the mid to upper 30s, with lows that
night dropping into the teens with partial clearing of skies.
Little to no travel impacts are expected with this system.
Saturday, 500-mb heights will begin to rise, as Friday's low
pressure clipper system continues to race off to the northeast,
brief ridging will remain in its place. West of this ridging
however is the next dynamic and potentially impactful system. As
for sensible weather Saturday, expect dry weather with decreasing
clouds and highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. With a mix of
clouds and clear skies at night, lows will drop into the teens
Saturday night.
Sunday, an upper level low will traverse the Intermountain West and
Central Plains before arriving in Kentucky by Sunday morning. This
system is becoming increasingly likely and looks to have multiple
wintry precipitation types expected across most areas. Cold air will
be established at the surface, with morning lows in the teens. As
the precipitation unfolds and moves in from the southwest, warm air
aloft is also expected to intrude, in what is commonly referred
to as a "warm nose". This warm nose aloft is anticipated to
increase temperatures above freezing through a layer in the
atmosphere, before returning to near or below freezing closer to
and at the surface. This is what will lead to mixed precip such as
snow, sleet, and freezing rain. This system is expected to bring
abundant moisture with it. Forecasted highs are forecast to be in
the low to mid 30s north of the Mountain Parkway, with mid 30s
further south. Currently, snow ratios are expected to be lower at
the start of this system, likely leading to a wetter, sloppy snow
to start in places. Lows Sunday night are forecasted in the upper
20s to lower 30s.
Winds will begin to shift out of the northeast and eventually
northwest during the day Monday. This will reinforce the cold air
leading to higher snow ratios. Precipitation will likely continue
through the day Monday tapering off early Tuesday. Highs Monday,
are forecasted in the upper 30s through much of the area, with
lows in the teens and low 20s. Using an ensemble approach to
explain potential, the Grand Ensemble, made up of model members of
the ENS, GEFS, and GEPS, shows a 20-25% probability of the area
along and north of the Mountain Parkway seeing a quarter inch or
greater of freezing rain, while areas south of the Mountain
Parkway have a 30-40% probability of meeting or exceeding the same
threshold. As for snowfall, chances for the higher amounts remain
across the north, in the Bluegrass area, and along the I-64
corridor. Using the NBM ensemble, the above area has a 35-40%
chance of seeing 4 inches or more with this system, while areas
down to the Hal Rogers Parkway have a 10-15% chance of seeing the
same amount. This is all subjective at this moment as the
slightest track or timing change can alter these greatly, but the
signal of a significant storm is increasing.
Tuesday and Wednesday, quieter weather returns as the big Sunday-
Monday system will have moved east of the area. Some lingering
snow showers may continue, but will likely be seen as
inconsequential compared to the previous day or two. Highs are
expected to be in the upper 20s to low 30s each of these days,
with lows in the teens Tuesday night, and potentially single
digits Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EST THU JAN 2 2025
Low VFR conditions were observed at TAF issuance and that will
remain the case until CIGs gradually erode from the southwest
through the remainder of the overnight and morning hours. A few
spits of snow or rain will be possible during the next couple of
hours at SJS and SYM, but most of the time, and area, will be
dry. Variable to westerly winds of less than 10 kts are expected
through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON/CMC/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 2, 12:51 AM EST---------------
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