BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 30, 3:43 PM EST394
FXUS61 KBOX 302043
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
343 PM EST Mon Dec 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and above normal temperatures expected on
Tuesday. Our next system arrives Tuesday night, bringing
rainfall across southern New England. Low pressure lifts
northeast of our region on Wednesday morning...but a few showers
may linger into the afternoon with one more day of relatively
mild temperatures. Otherwise...temperatures will progressively
trend colder/below normal Thursday right through the upcoming
weekend. A period of strong to damaging wind gusts are possible
for Thursday as the initial surge of colder air works into the
region. Dry weather will generally prevail Thursday through the
weekend outside of a brief spot snow shower or two.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Day cloud phase satellite imagery shows a good amount of
clearing/scattering in the cloud decks this afternoon in most spots.
The only exceptions are far SE MA (Cape/Islands) where a blanket of
low stratus remains with areas of fog being reported. As a result,
this will be the last place to improve with skies clearing late
afternoon-early evening.
Overnight, expect areas of scattered clouds, dry conditions, and
light SW/WSW winds. Low temperatures drop into the 30s, likely above
freezing across southern New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Dry conditions Tuesday with above normal temperatures
* Next system brings rain starting Tuesday evening with the bulk
of it continuing through Wednesday AM
Tuesday:
Tomorrow will be the lull between systems. This will feature a dry
day with weak warm advection and light southerly winds. Highs lean
above normal again with values in the upper 40s to low 50s. Mid-
level clouds increase from the west in the afternoon as our next
system approaches the region.
Tuesday Night - Early Wednesday:
The "action" happens Tuesday evening/early Weds AM with the arrival
of the next system. An upper level shortwave and surface low will
bring another period of rainfall to southern New England. Warm
advection and weak lift combined with precipitable water values
200-240% of normal will support another soaking rain to the
region. The bulk of the precipitation is likely to occur late
tomorrow night through Wednesday morning. Given warmer
temperatures, this will fall as rain.For rain amounts(QPF), a
good portion of ensemble members are still hovering in the 0.5
to 1 inch range. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder as high
resolution guidance shows marginal instability in place.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages...
* A few showers linger Wed with highs middle 40s to the lower 50s
* Strong-Damaging Wind Gusts Possible Thu...Highs upper 30s/lower 40s
* Temps trending colder/below normal Fri through the Weekend
* Mainly Dry Thu into the Weekend other than a spot snow shower
* Perhaps a period of snow by Mon...but low confidence
Details...
Wednesday...
Low pressure in the vicinity of the I-95 corridor early Wed morning
will be intensifying as it lifts into Maine later Wed. There will be
lingering showers Wed morning and perhaps even a rumble or two of
thunder early in the morning with some elevated instability.
Otherwise...with lingering shortwave energy a few showers may
persist into the afternoon and evening but not a washout. There
could even be a bit of wet snow mixed in late Wed/Wed evening across
the high terrain...but not expecting much of an impact. Highs should
be in the middle 40s to the lower 50s.
Wednesday night and Thursday...
The low pressure system across Maine Wed night will be lifting into
the Maritimes by Thu. This will allow a westerly flow of colder air
aloft to work into the region. In fact...850 mb jet will increase to
between 45 and 55 knots by Thu and Bufkit indicates excellent
mixing. Seems like NBM is underdone after looking at Bufkit
soundings and very steep 1000-850 mb lapse rates. Therefore...fairly
confident that we will see westerly wind gusts on the order of 45-55
mph with a low risk for a few gusts of 60+ mph on Thu. No Wind
Headlines yet...but thinking we certainly will need them in future
forecast packages.
Dry weather will generally prevail...but a few spot snow showers
will be possible with the best chance across the distant interior/
towards the Berks. Overnight low temps Wed night will be mainly in
the lower to middle 30s...but highs on Thu will only recover into
the upper 30s to the lower 40s for most locales.
Friday through the Weekend...
The GEFS/EPS/GEPS have been very consistent in showing a deep upper
trough developing over the eastern states. The teleconnections
indicate a -NAO/+PNA which is very supportive of cold/below normal
temps across our region. Thinking we will continue to see temps
trending colder Fri through the Weekend under blustery conditions.
Highs probably struggle to break freezing across much of the region
Sat and especially Sun.
The trough axis appears to be too far east for much precipitation over
this time. We can not rule out a few brief spot snow showers at
times especially across the distant interior...but we are mainly
looking at dry but cold/blustery conditions.
Monday...
We will have to watch a low pressure system approaching from the
southwest. A lot of the guidance seems to want to deflect the brunt
of this system to our south or weaken it as it tries to move towards
the Great Lakes. Think this is the nature of the closed upper level
being far enough south near the northern New England/Quebec border
that it blocks the system from impacting us significantly. So
currently odds favor a miss or just a glancing blow with perhaps
some light now. That being said...given this system a week out if
the closed low shifted further north than at least a low risk for a
more significant snowfall across southern New England. Plenty of
time to sort out the details.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update:
Today: High confidence.
Ceilings continue to improve this afternoon from west to east.
IFR ceilings hang on a bit longer for the Cape and Islands with
FG/BR with conditions improving in the 22-00z timeframe. SSW/SW
winds at 09-14 kts. Gusts up to 20kts for Cape/Islands terminals
and ORH through early evening.
Tonight: High confidence.
VFR for the airports, though couldn't rule out an MVFR ceiling
in the Berkshires. SW/WSW winds around 10 kt.
Tuesday: High confidence.
VFR SKC early with mid-level cloud decks moving in later in the
day. Light SW winds 5-8 kts becoming light S late afternoon.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Improvements toward VFR 18-20z. SSW/SW winds at 9-14 kts. Light
SW winds overnight continuing Tuesday morning. Light afternoon
flow may shift more S/SSE after 18z.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/
New Years Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, RA likely.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy
with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts up to 45 kt.
Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
3:30 PM Update:
Winds have decreased this afternoon leading to dropping of the
Gale Warnings for the outer east waters. These have be replaced
with Small Craft Advisories. Winds stay around 15-25 kt for
tonight, and decrease to around 15 kt Tuesday. Wave heights
around 4-8 ft for the outer waters through Tuesday AM. Heights
gradually continue to decrease into the afternoon.
Waters around the Cape and Islands have been slow to improve
with clouds/fog this afternoon. Expect gradually improvements
early this evening.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
New Years Day: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain
showers, rain likely.
Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with areas
of gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain
showers.
Thursday: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas
up to 13 ft.
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.
Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough
seas.
Friday Night through Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Local
visibility 1 to 3 nm.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230.
Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for
ANZ230>237-250-251-254.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ231-232-250-
254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ233>235-237.
Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening
for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Mensch
MARINE...Frank/Mensch
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 30, 3:43 PM EST----------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
