PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 31, 12:53 PM CST367
FXUS63 KPAH 311853
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1253 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Wind Advisory remains in until 5 PM CST for most of the
area for gust potential up to around 40 mph.
- A minor dusting of snowfall is possible across our northeast
Thursday night as seasonably colder air establishes itself
into and thru the weekend.
- A big late weekend storm system may bring impactful winter
weather conditions Sunday into Monday. It's still a little too
early to tell how much will be rain versus snow or ice, but a
reinforcing shot of arctic cold air will come with it.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
As low pressure tracks up the Ohio valley and establishes a
little distance, a few more lingering hours of gustiness will
begin to diminish with the ending of the day. A Wind Advisory
remains in effect for potential gusts up to around 40 mph until
about sunset.
Clouds may linger awhile longer as high pressure to the west
begins to nudge in, but eventually it does and brings with it a
drying column and some cooler temperatures. The high shifts east
across the TN Valley and is followeed by a weak upper air
disturbance that rolls across the northeast Thursday night. It
is moisture starved but brings just enough that a minor dusting
just might be squeezed out of small pops in our northeast as it
makes passage with its reinforcing shot of arctic cold air that
finishes out our week.
It is this aforementioned cold air mass that hangs thru the
weekend, with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s, that is in
place as our next big system makes its approach Sunday. The
deterministic models are showing large fluctuations in the low
track, and this will be very impactful with respect to where our
temperatures support snow or ice vs rain, so we're still just a
little too far out in time to get precise. It does look like
chances are increasing for at least some or even all of our
region to experience impactful wintry weather of some sort for
some duration Sunday into Monday. We'll stick with the blend and
its mean solution until it/the models hone in on a more agreed
upon track before pinpointing precip types/amounts.
The system's passage still offers a mammoth blast of arctic
cold that will plunge our temps another 5-10F below their
already below normal numbers as we head into the first half of
next week. Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens, maybe even some
single digits, looks to be in the offering by days 7-8.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
Gusty winds will diminish this evening as departing low pressure
puts some distance between itself and high pressure incoming
from our west. Restricted category bases with MVFR CIGS
commonplace looks to hold into the evening, then gradually the
colder/drier airmass takes over the column. This should
eventually eliminate the restricted bases and return sunshine by
or before the planning phase hours of the Wednesday forecast,
before another increase in clouds comes in again not too long
thereafter.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ076-086-087-
109>112-114.
IN...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST /6 PM EST/ this afternoon for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 31, 12:53 PM CST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
