ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 30, 6:34 AM EST052
FXUS61 KILN 301134
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
634 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move away from the area and high pressure
will briefly track across the region today, offering dry weather.
Another low will move east across the area late tonight through
Tuesday bringing the next threat for precipitation. Above
normal temperatures through mid week will be replaced by cooler
temperatures for the end of the week into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low pressure over the Great Lakes will continue tracking away
for the area with high pressure passing across the region today.
As the low pulls way gusty westerly winds will continue to
diminish backing to the southwest around 10 mph this afternoon.
Some breaks have developed in the cloud cover but clouds will
fill back in with low level moisture lingering into the
afternoon. Temperatures will rise to highs mid 40s north to mid
50s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Robust, progressive mid level short wave will approach from the
west tonight. Isentropic lift develops with a 50-55kt low level
jet nosing into the area. A few showers will be possible at late
evening with more widespread rain spreading into the west late
and then across the area Tuesday as the surface wave moves into
the region.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s, with
temperatures steadying out and then even rising slightly late.
Highs on Tuesday to range from the mid 40s northwest to the mid
50s southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will finish progressing through the Ohio Valley on
Tuesday night. There could be some lingering precipitation behind
the front that may briefly transition over to snow, but no impacts
are expected. Forecast lows drop into the middle to lower 30s by
Wednesday morning on breezy northwesterly flow.
The shift to a colder synoptic setup for the foreseeable future
really starts to take hold Wednesday and beyond when upper level
troughing settles into the eastern CONUS. For midweek, cold and
mostly dry conditions are forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. A
chance for snow arrives on Thursday night into Friday morning when a
weak surface wave moves through the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will
likely be cold enough that any snow that falls would stick. However,
ensemble probabilities have less than a 10% chance of an of inch
snow.
A return to cold and dry conditions is expected Friday afternoon
through Saturday night. The next chance for precipitation is on
Sunday into Monday when a low pressure system moves somewhere across
the area. Precipitation type will largely depend on the strength and
track of the low. Some winter impacts are possible.
A more significant cold air outbreak is still looking possible by
around January 9th or January 10th according to global ensemble
guidance.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deep surface low pressure over the Great Lakes to continue
tracking to the northeast with weak high pressure building
across the area today.
MVFR clouds may break out to VFR at times this morning but
widespread VFR conditions will hold off until afternoon. Mid
level clouds to increase ahead of the next system this evening
with rain arriving after 06Z. Have MVFR conditions developing at
the western TAF sites with IFR conditions at the 30 hour KCVG
TAF sites after 16Z Tuesday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs/VSBYs likely Tuesday into Tuesday night,
possibly extending into Wednesday. Rain expected Monday
overnight into Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 30, 6:34 AM EST---------------
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