PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 30, 1:58 AM EST272
FXUS61 KPBZ 300658
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
158 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking across the eastern Great Lakes tonight
will bring additional rainfall and strong winds. A second
disturbance will track across the area on Tuesday, with
additional rainfall. A pattern change to colder conditions will
occur during the second half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain tapers off overnight.
- Wind Advisory extended through 4am.
- Showers across the north end Monday afternoon.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
As of the 06Z timeframe, there were still some upper m30 mph to
some mid 40 mph wind gusts still occurring. Thus, the Wind
Advisory has been extended through 09Z. Showers will persist
through the morning hours with continued wind gusts.
Showers will continue to track north of Pittsburgh this morning and
into the afternoon due to the previously mentioned shortwave,
with perhaps some modest lake enhancement. These will likely end
by sunset as mid-level riding pays a brief visit to the region.
Cloud cover will be slow to scatter out through the day, but a
brief period of clearing is possible during the evening hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Brief dry period Monday night.
- Another period of rain likely Tuesday/Tuesday night with
another low pressure system.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Dry weather likely returns (briefly) for Monday night amid
drier northwest flow and influence of surface ridging centered
over the Carolinas. Temperatures will remain roughly 10 degrees
above climatologic norms during the Monday/Monday night period.
Ensembles still advertise that the next surface low pressure
system will likely advance from the Lower Ohio Valley Tuesday
morning, crossing our region and reaching the Middle
Atlantic/southern New England area by 12Z Wednesday. Another
period of steady rain is expected with this system lasting into
Tuesday night, before colder air arrives and starts to change
precipitation over to snow. Modest ridge accumulation is
possible prior to 12Z Wednesday. Temperatures will begin their
tumble towards more seasonable levels.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Snow continues Wednesday/Wednesday night, with the ridges most
favored for accumulation.
- Late week pattern shift will favor below normal temperature,
periodic snow, and high terrain gusty wind.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Snow showers will continue behind the departing low on Wednesday
and into Wednesday night, perhaps aided by lake enhancement
and/or upslope flow, although low-level wind direction remains
questionable. The higher terrain is most favored for
accumulation. 24-hour totals of 3 inches or more have a 50 to 80
percent chance of occurrence above 2000 feet or so. A Winter
Weather Advisory is a possibility for this region.
For the remainder of the extended period, ensemble guidance
continues to point to a period of troughing over the northeast
CONUS from Wednesday into at least Saturday. Model detail
differences with shortwaves and trough timing remain, but there
remains high confidence in below-normal temperatures,
particularly from Thursday on, when NBM probabilities of
subfreezing high temperatures increase to near 100% areawide by
Saturday. Wind gusts will continue to be an issue as well,
especially during the afternoon hours each day. NBM
probabilities continue to favor locations above 2000 feet for
potential advisory-level gusts (40-80% probability), but gusts
of 25 to 35 MPH appear possible across the rest of the Upper
Ohio Valley. Periods of snow showers can also be expected in
this pattern, with northwest PA and the higher elevations most
favored for accumulations.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Precipitation (largely north of KPIT) will come to an end by
early afternoon, with gusty winds and widespread MVFR cigs
improving to VFR by late afternoon. Latest ensemble guidance
shows probabilities for MVFR cigs decreasing to 15%-0% by 00Z
this evening.
Outlook...
Periodic restrictions return later Tuesday through Thursday
with crossing low pressure, and subsequent upper troughing. Rain
should also gradually change to snow by mid week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for WVZ001>004-
012-021-509>514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...88
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 30, 1:58 AM EST---------------
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