IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 22, 2:39 PM EST239
FXUS63 KIWX 221939
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
239 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Monday morning, freezing rain is expected for counties along
the southern Michigan state line. A glaze of ice is expected
before a change over to rain from west to east.
- Elsewhere, a brief period of freezing rain or drizzle in the
morning changes to rain.
-Temperatures warm into the 40s and 50s starting Thursday with
additional chance for rain this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024
A winter weather advisory was hoisted this afternoon for the Indiana-
Michigan state line from 7am to 4pm EST Monday. This end time is
likely several hours too long for the western 3 to 5 counties as
freezing rain will transition to rain prior to noon. However,
in an effort to keep messaging simple, I've opted for one
segment that can be ended early if needed. Northwest Ohio
perhaps sees a short duration of freezing rain, thus, they were
omitted at this time.
Existing cold air is cause for concern ahead of rain arriving Monday
morning. Low pressure streaks through Michigan Monday amid a
shortwave trough aloft. Meanwhile, the source of our recent cold
snap, high pressure is forecast to be over the Delmarva Peninsula
Monday morning limiting eastward and poleward moisture transport
from the Gulf into said low. This presents some challenges for
the onset of freezing rain. In contrast, ample isentropic lift
should be able to gradually overcome lingering dry air, perhaps
resulting in a period of freezing drizzle Monday morning. This
morning's pavement and soil temperatures were in the low 20s but
have since warmed to about 32-38 degrees as of this writing;
perhaps an indication of how these temperatures might evolve
Monday. Ice accretions could be as great as 0.10", primarily
over southern Michigan where duration will be longest. Most
locations will see a glaze/trace. The risk of freezing rain is
limited south of US 30, especially by late- morning as warm air
advection favors a change over to rain (northern areas do not
have this benefit). Dry weather resumes from west to east prior
to midnight.
An active mid-latitude jet stream prevails for much of the week
bringing several chances for rain and a warming trend by week's end.
The first wave lifts in from the mid-Mississippi valley Wednesday
attempting to spread rain into our area. There continues to be
significant run-to-run swings from the in-house blend. This stems
from the influence of lingering high pressure over the Northeast.
The next rain-maker arrives for the weekend. Highs will be well into
the 40s by Thursday and 50s by Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024
VFR conditions through the rest of today and likely the
overnight period with just some mid and high clouds due to weak
ridging over the area. Bigger problems will arise on Monday
morning with mid-level warm air advection and cold temperatures
still at the surface giving a chance of freezing rain at SBN
between 12Z and 16Z. FWA should warm up enough before the rain
makes it there around 17Z that they will probably just see all
rain. Southerly winds will become breezy with gusts 20 to 25 kts
on Monday morning.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ to 4 PM EST
/3 PM CST/ Monday for INZ005>007-103-104-203-204.
OH...None.
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for
MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Cobb
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 22, 2:39 PM EST---------------
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