MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 27, 5:43 AM CST ...New AVIATION...966
FXUS64 KMOB 271143
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
543 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024
Predominately IFR ceilings are expected today with a mix of
LIFR/IFR ceilings tonight, with the potential for VLIFR conditions
in fog developing near the coast late tonight. Periods of scattered
to potentially numerous showers and embedded storms are anticipated
to affect much of the area. Southeasterly winds around 10 knots
become southerly to southeasterly around 5 knots tonight. /29
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday Night)
Issued at 424 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024
An active weather pattern is anticipated through the period. An
upper trof over the central states takes on a negative tilt while
lifting off towards the Great Lakes region through tonight. Another
upper trof quick on the heels of the first trof evolves over the
southern/central Plains late tonight into Saturday morning then
takes on a slight negative tilt while progressing into the
southeastern states Saturday night. A warm front currently extends
from central Mississippi down into the Alabama and western Florida
panhandle coastal waters and is expected to lift northward through
the forecast area today. MLCAPE values increase to around 1000 J/kg
over southeast Mississippi this afternoon, tapering to lower values
further to the east due to less favorable low level lapse rates. For
tonight, MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg are expected over the
western portions of the area and could spread eastward overnight,
but this depends on how much improvement there is in the low level
lapse rates. A 25-40 knot 850 mb jet this afternoon diminishes to 20-
25 knots tonight, resulting in 0-3 km helicity values of 200-300
m2/s2 today dropping off to 100-150 m2/s2. As the first upper trof
brushes past the forecast region along with a series of shortwaves,
this appears to favor two rounds of showers and storms, although
there is uncertainty with just how much forcing will be available
and as a result just how much convection develops. That said, am
anticipating a first round of storms to develop to the west and
advance mainly across the western and central portions of the area
through the day into the early evening hours. A second round of
showers and storms is then anticipated to advance across much of the
area from late afternoon into the late night hours. Given the
environment, there is the potential for some strong to severe
storms, tempered by uncertainty with the strength of the forcing and
also by how quickly low level lapse rates can improve over the
central and eastern portions of the area. The Storm Prediction
Center currently has a Marginal Risk of severe storms for the entire
area.
A surface low is expected to develop over the southern Plains by
Saturday morning then advance to the Mississippi/Ohio River
confluence by early Saturday evening before lifting into the
interior eastern states Saturday night. The surface low is expected
to bring a cold front into the western portion of the forecast area
by late Saturday night. As an upper trof advances into the region
along with a series of shortwaves and the approach of the cold
front, convection is expected to develop across the area by Saturday
afternoon, with a broken squall line progressing across the area
starting as early as late Saturday afternoon and continuing into
early Sunday morning. An 850 mb jet increases to 25-40 knots
Saturday afternoon then to 30-50 knots Saturday evening before
diminishing somewhat during the late night hours, providing for
plenty of favorable shear. MLCAPE values increase to 1000-1500 J/kg
over the western half of the area by Saturday afternoon (with lower
values further east), then are expected to spread into much of the
remaining eastern portion overnight. The best deep layer
forcing/instability/shear will be over southeast Mississippi and
interior southwest Alabama where the Storm Prediction Center has an
Enhanced Risk of severe storms. A Slight Risk of severe storms
exists for much of the remainder of the area except for the far
eastern and coastal areas where less favorable instability is
anticipated. Along with the potential for severe weather through the
period, the southerly flow of warm and moist air over cool near
shore waters will likely lead to sea fog forming especially over
Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound this afternoon, with fog
spreading inland tonight. Confidence in visibilities dropping to 1
nm or less over the marine portion was not quite high enough to
issue a Dense Fog Advisory at this point so will defer to the next
shift. It's possible that a Dense Fog Advisory could also become
necessary for much of the land portion of the area tonight. A High
Risk of rip currents is expected through Saturday night. /29
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 424 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024
The area quickly dries out through the day on Sunday as a cold front
sweeps across the area. Prior to the cold front, a broken line of
storms will exit the area from west to east throughout the morning
hours. Any strong to severe storms should be out of the area by 7-
8am on Sunday with some showers and storms lingering through mid-
morning for locations generally east of the I-65 corridor. This is
not a very potent cold front as temperatures only fall into the 40s
and 50s Sunday night into Monday morning.
A surface high quickly builds into the region on the backside of the
rain and the area dries out Sunday afternoon through Monday. The
surface high slides out of the area (just as fast as it slid in
here) and onshore flow becomes established again by Monday
afternoon. Isolated showers are expected on Tuesday as a subtle,
fast-moving shortwave slides into the Midwest. Moisture return looks
to be meager on Tuesday as another cold front slides into the area.
We are not anticipating any severe weather ahead of this front,
however, temperatures will tumble in the wake of the front. While it
will be chilly Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the bigger push
of cold air will occur the following three nights. Temperatures will
fall below freezing across interior areas Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Lows will plunge into the upper 20s to low 30s for
all locations north of I-10 Thursday night into Friday morning. The
coldest night of the week looks to be Friday night into Saturday
where temperatures plummet into the mid to upper 20s across inland
locations with temperatures hovering just above freezing at the
beaches. Highs on Thursday and Friday will struggle in the cold air
advection regime with temperatures hovering in the 50s both days.
07/mb
MARINE...
Issued at 424 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024
A Small Craft Advisory for the open Gulf waters has been extended
until 15Z this morning to allow sufficient time for southeasterly
winds to diminish. Small craft should otherwise exercise caution
until early afternoon for the open Gulf waters. Sea fog is expected
to develop especially over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound this
afternoon and continue through at least much of Saturday afternoon.
A Dense Fog Advisory may become necessary. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 73 62 74 61 73 47 71 56 / 80 50 80 90 20 0 0 20
Pensacola 71 64 73 63 73 52 70 60 / 70 60 70 90 40 0 0 20
Destin 71 64 74 66 75 55 71 62 / 40 50 60 90 50 10 0 20
Evergreen 70 59 74 60 73 45 71 52 / 60 60 70 90 30 0 0 20
Waynesboro 73 61 73 57 70 45 71 53 / 80 40 80 90 10 0 0 20
Camden 66 59 72 59 70 45 70 52 / 70 70 80 90 20 0 0 20
Crestview 73 60 76 61 77 47 73 52 / 40 50 60 90 50 0 0 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ650-655-
670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 27, 5:43 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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