ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 1:37 PM EDT963
FXUS61 KILN 311737
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
137 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure of Canadian origin will bring dry and cool conditions
through this evening. An unsettled pattern is expected from late
Saturday through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure slowly shifts off the east this evening into
tonight. As this occurs, and upper level vorticity max will approach
from the west thereby increasing southerly flow over the Ohio
Valley. Upper level clouds and moisture increase through the night
on the southerly flow. Forecast lows are in the middle 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions are still expected to stick around Saturday morning
ahead of an approaching upper level vorticity max and weak surface
disturbance. Mostly dry conditions may actually end up persisting
across the area until afternoon when rain finally starts to move in
from the west associated with the aforementioned system. A severe
threat is not at all expected since instability is minimal and shear
is well below severe thresholds. Dew points and cloud cover increase
through the day on weak southerly flow. Forecast highs are near 80.
The chance for rain persists Saturday night with the upper level
trough axis pivoting through. Forecast QPF is less than and inch
with means there is little flood concern. Forecast lows drop into
the middle to lower 60s. Surface flow will be southerly to start the
night before shifting to the west later on the western side of the
trough axis.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rainfall spreading into the CWA from the west ahead of an upper s/w
Saturday night will end from nw-se on Sunday. Dry weather under
weak ridging behind the s/w will occur through Monday, possibly
overnight.
While deterministic models show little odds of rain overnight Monday
due to an upper ridge still in place, NBM is pushing rain chances
during this time, increasing it through Tuesday and lingering the
chances through Thursday. Significant timing differences in mass
fields of GFS and Euro continue for the remainder of the forecast
even though the pattern for both is fairly similar. Other models and
apparently the ensembles throw more than timing/placement into the
mix with large scale pattern differences coming into play. This ends
up keeping at least low chances of precip in the forecast through
Thursday evening. It is more than likely that some dry periods will
occur between systems but uncertainty noted above does not give a
large enough indication to put a lack of pops in any period with
confidence.
Sunday's highs will reach the mid to upper 70s, generally a little
cooler than Saturday due to the expected rainfall. Monday through
Wednesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s, with Thursday being a
bit cooler within a few degrees on either side of 80. Uniform lows
Sat night near 61-62 in a moisture-laden atmosphere will drop
slightly lower Sun night on either side of 60 with drier air. Mon
night-Wed night lows in the mid to upper 60s should drop to the
lower 60s for Thursday night.
Temperatures in the forecast beyond the first few periods are also
dependent on what systems move through and when they do. Attm,
warmer forecast is the more likely scenario until a frontal passage
Wed night or Thursday knocks readings down at the end of the
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions persist through at least 1800z Saturday despite
increasing upper and mid level clouds. MVFR or lower conditions and
showers are eventually expected to develop after 1800z Saturday.
Southeasterly winds from 5-10 knots shifts to the south after 1200z
Saturday.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday through
Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Campbell
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 1:37 PM EDT---------------
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