JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 24, 11:20 AM EST258
FXUS63 KJKL 241620 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1120 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few pockets of drizzle and light rain will clear up by early
afternoon.
- A warming trend is expected through the rest of the week.
- Additional rain potential at times into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1120 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2024
15Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over the southern parts of
the area and this is helping to dry out the morning light rain and
patches of drizzle. It also means mild conditions under mostly
cloudy skies through the afternoon. Currently, temperatures vary
from the mid 30s in the higher terrain of far eastern Kentucky to
the low and mid 40s elsewhere. Meanwhile, amid light southerly
winds, dewpoints are running in the mid 20s southwest to the mid
30s in the north. Have updated the forecast mainly to fine tune
the PoPs through the afternoon per the latest radar loop and near
term CAMs guidance. Did also include the current obs and trends
for the T/Td grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the
NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and
SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 815 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2024
Hourly grids were updated based on radar and observation trends.
This led to a bit more area coverage futher to the south compared
to the previous forecast. Hourly temperatures increased in a few
locations as well with more substantial cloud cover in place. The
showers and/or sprinkles should decrease in coverage as the
morning progresses.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2024
Current satellite and radar trends show lower clouds moving in
across portions of northern Kentucky, along with light radar
returns, mainly north of the Mountain Parkway. Airports across the
north such as Falmouth-Snyder and Flemingsburg are reporting a
combination of light drizzle or light rain as of 3 AM. These
showers may extend as far south as Jackson, but will likely stay
along and north of the Mountain Parkway. These showers will taper
off heading into the morning hours past sunrise. A couple of
hundredths are possible. For the rest of Christmas Eve, expect
cloudy skies under light southwesterly winds and highs in the mid
to upper 40s. Tonight, mostly cloudy skies remain with lows in
the low to mid 30s.
Christmas Day, mostly cloudy skies north of the Hal-Rogers
Parkway, otherwise partly cloudy. Some low end shower chances are
possible along and north of the Mountain Parkway, with the HREF
Grand Ensemble giving a 10% probability or less of seeing any
6-hour time where rain showers accumulate more than 0.01 inches.
All this to say, chances of rain are low, but not zero. Models
have been trending towards a drier solution. Highs are expected to
range in the low to mid 50s, with areas along and south of the
Hal-Rogers Parkway seeing mid to upper 50s, due to less cloud
cover and more daytime heating potential.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 440 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2024
The period is expected to begin with shortwave upper level ridging
from the Carolinas northwest into parts of the Central and
Southern Appalachians and mid OH Valley, with a dampening
shortwave trough passing from the OH Valley into the Great Lakes
while a another shortwave trough is expected upstream form the mid
MS Valley to the Lower MS Valley to portions of the Gulf of
Mexico. Further west, a trough is expected to extend from Canada
tot he MT to the vicinity of the Four Corners region into Mexico.
Further upstream of this, a trough is expected over the Pacific
west of the coast of BC to west of the west coast of the Conus. At
the surface, a weak stationary front is expected to extend from
low pressure in east TX to the Ozarks to Lower OH Valley to
eastern KY. Another surface system is expected from the Dakotas to
a developing low to the lee of the Rockies with yet another
system upstream over the eastern Pacific nearing BC to the
Northwest Conus. Locally, deeper moisture should initially be
near and north of the stationary boundary and across the deep
south near that area of low pressure.
Wednesday night to Thursday night, the initial shortwave passing
to the north of the Lower OH Valley will depart further northeast
with the next shortwave gradually working into the OH Valley and
further into the southeast though as it runs into riding it should
dampen. At the same time, the trough futher west is progged to
move into the Central to Southern Plains and then near the mid MS
Valley on Thu night. Another shortwave trough moves from the
Pacific into BC and the Northwest and reaches the Northern Rockies
to High Plains. Further west the next shortwave nears or enters
the Northwest Conus. At the surface, the area of low pressure in
eastern TX is forecast to weaken as that associated trough while
the surface low to the lee of the Rockies and over the Plains
deepens. That surface low should track into MO through Thu night
while the stationary frontal zone over the OH Valley and east of
the sfc low meanders north of the OH River and possibly back
south. As for precipitation chance in eastern KY, the initial
departing shortwave and the next shortwave that dampens may
interact with the meandering boundary for a few showers across
northern sections of the area on Wed night. However, a period of
ridging is anticipated across eastern KY for Thu into Thu night
ahead of the next shortwave and sfc system and at this point the
Thu into Thu night appears dry.
Friday to Saturday night should begin a period of more unsettled
weather that carries into early next week. The next shortwave
should cross the Lower OH Valley on Fri. However, the next in the
series of systems should move from the Plains and near the MS
Valley by late Fri or Fri night and largely pass northwest of
eastern KY around upper level ridging from the eastern Gulf up
along the eastern seaboard. The next system closely on its heals
should reach the Plains/Central Conus on Fri night and near MS
Valley late Sat, before working into the eastern Conus and Lower
OH Valley on Sat night. The current consensus of guidance is for
the axis of that trough to be west of the area late Sat night.
Meanwhile as for sfc systems, occluded low pressure should track
northwest of the Lower OH Valley and into the Great Lakes from Fri
to Sat and meander over the Great Lakes into Sat night. The
trailing sfc cold front should work into the Lower OH Valley and
gradually work across the western and central parts of the Commonwealth
Sat and Sat evening and into eastern KY on Sat night. More
substantial forcing is expected at times to end the week and over
the weekend with a peak rain chances with a passing shortwave
trough Fri evening and Fri night and a possible relative lull for
much of Sat. However, as the next upper level system and cold
front approach Sat evening and Sat night, guidance suggests the
best combination of moisture/forcing/lift across eastern KY and
thus the highest chances for rain during the long term period.
Although rain chances appear to peak Sat evening and Sat night,
they will linger into Sunday even behind the cold front as 500 mb
trough axis should hang back to the west. That trough axis should
move east and northeast of the area Sun night per the consensus of
guidance although another system may approach from the
Plains/Central Conus by late Monday. Thus the unsettled weather
over the weekend appears poised to linger into the first half of
next week as well.
Above normal temperatures by at least 5 to 10 degrees are
expected the entire period even behind the cold front to end the
weekend and begin the new work week. Departures above normal
should be greatest on Sat in advance of the cold front, when they
should reach the 15 to 20 degree above normal range. With all the
mild conditions for late December in place, precipitation will
all fall as rain. Despite the unsettled weather and multiple
periods with rain chances, QPF should does not appear to be all
that heavy in any 6 hour period due to the rather progressive
nature of the systems. A good soaking rain should occur during the
5 day period, with most places forecast to pick up upwards of an
inch or more or rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2024
Drizzle or light showers have been observed at KSYM, KSJS, and
KJKL this morning. Showers should tapper off after 15Z with
lingering cloud decks around low end VFR or high end MVFR. Expect
SW flow to continue through today, at around 5 kts becoming light
and variable heading deeper into the overnight period. Winds will
then continue to be light, out of the east heading into the
morning hours Wednesday. A small chance (<10%) of a shower or two
is possible Wednesday morning at KSYM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 24, 11:20 AM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
