LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 17, 9:12 PM CST ...New UPDATE...465
FXUS64 KLIX 180312
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
912 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024
Forecast is on track so far. Mainly made some minor hourly
adjustments to temps but everything looks good. Fog is already
start to develop in the river basins with PQL already down to 1/2sm
and a few obs in the Pearl River Basin down to 2 and 4sm. As
temperatures continue to slowly sink into the upper 50s and lower
60s fog will begin to expand and likely be more widespread by or
shortly after 6z. Dense fog advisory has already been issued but
will now begin it at 4z given the fog that is already developing
along the coast and in the river basins. /CAB/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 315 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024
Upper trough moving through the Northern Plains States this
afternoon, with ridging along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, a
westward extension of the Bermuda High extended into southern
Louisiana. A frontal boundary was stationary between Interstate 40
and Interstate 20. Locally, skies were mostly sunny across the
area at 3 PM CST, with temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Dew points were a little lower than yesterday, mainly
ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
The most impactful weather will be overnight tonight into
Wednesday morning with widespread fog expected to develop. Skies
will be mostly clear this evening with little or no wind at the
surface, and 5 to 10 knots in the boundary layer. That should
allow for the development of radiation fog overnight, with most of
the higher resolution guidance indicating high probabilities that
the fog will be dense. Have already issued a Dense Fog Advisory
from midnight to 10 AM CST for the entire area, although it's
possible not everyone will see dense fog. Conditions should
improve during the mid morning hours.
The trough associated with the Northern Plains shortwave will
sweep across the area tomorrow afternoon and evening, pushing a
cold front through the area during the late morning and afternoon
hours. May not have any precipitation in advance of the front, but
forecast soundings indicate about a 3 hour window behind the front
where at least some low topped rain showers will be possible,
mainly north of Interstate 10. Any significant cold air advection
is likely to lag the frontal passage by 6 hours or so, and won't
really impact high temperatures tomorrow, which could be almost as
warm as today. Low temperatures tomorrow night will be about 10
degrees cooler than today, even with cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 315 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024
The drier air really takes hold behind the cold front Thursday
morning with rapid clearing and highs in the 60s. A second
Northern Plains shortwave trough will move through the area late
Thursday night and Friday, reinforcing the cold and dry air. No
precipitation associated with that trough, either. That second
shot of cold air could allow morning lows to fall pretty close to
freezing Saturday and Sunday mornings across the northern half of
the area. Weekend highs may not make it out of the 50s in most
areas. No significant precipitation is expected across the area
from Thursday through early next week.
As high pressure covers the east half of the country early next
week, east to southeast winds should allow temperatures to
moderate back into the 60s for highs. An early peek at Christmas
Day looks mostly dry with highs potentially between 70 and 75
across most of the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024
VFR at all terminals at forecast issuance time, and this should
continue for at least most of the evening hours. Conditions
expected to deteriorate after midnight as fog develops. Expect
most or all terminals to deteriorate quickly to IFR or lower, with
conditions at or below field minima expected for several hours.
Improvement expected around mid-morning as surface heating
combines with a frontal boundary moving into the area to mix out
the fog. Behind the frontal boundary, there's the potential for
occasional MVFR ceilings and isolated to scattered SHRA for 3 or 4
hours. This will be right at the end of the forecast period, and
for now will only carry VCSH at KMCB and KBTR for the last few
hours of the forecast period. Most precipitation, if any occurs at
all, should generally remain north of Interstate 10, so several
more terminals may need a mention in the 06z TAF package.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024
Main impactful weather for marine interests will be expected fog
development tonight, which could be dense, especially over the
lakes and sounds. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has already been
issued for the protected waters and most of the waters out to 20
NM from midnight tonight through mid-morning Wednesday. Conditions
should improve as a frontal boundary moves into the waters during
the day on Wednesday. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are
likely to be necessary overnight tomorrow night as colder and
drier air moves across the waters. A reinforcing shot of cold and
dry air Friday may necessitate the issuance of Small Craft
Advisories Friday night into Saturday for most of the waters.
Beyond that point winds should remain in the 10 to 15 knot range
into early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 54 73 45 60 / 0 30 20 0
BTR 58 77 50 65 / 0 20 10 0
ASD 56 75 52 66 / 0 10 10 0
MSY 59 73 54 64 / 0 10 10 0
GPT 56 75 53 65 / 0 0 10 0
PQL 56 78 52 69 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Wednesday
for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Wednesday
for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Wednesday
for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Wednesday
for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 17, 9:12 PM CST ...New UPDATE...---------------
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