CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 23, 9:38 PM EST147
FXUS61 KCLE 240238
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
938 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves east across the area tonight into Tuesday
morning. High pressure will return Tuesday afternoon and
continue to influence the weather through Friday. A low
pressure system is expected to impacted the area this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
9:40 PM Update...
Precipitation continues to impact the region, very limited
changes with this update.
Previous Discussion...
Scattered rain showers have begun across the western portion of
the CWA as weak pre-frontal trough moves across the area. These
showers will become more widespread this evening through the
overnight hours as additional support from a shortwave trough
vort max, strong LLJ of 40-45 knots, and frontogenetic forcing
provide ample support. The exact timing remains a bit uncertain
given how dry the lingering airmass is as much of the
reflectivity seen on radar currently are not reaching the
ground with dew points in the teens. Once the column becomes
saturated and showers commence, the next question is what type
of precipitation everything will fall as. Confidence is growing
that precipitation will remain as all rain along the I75
corridor given the current temperatures in the 40s and the
continuing erosion of the warm nose aloft. For areas along the
I77 and I71 corridor, there will likely be a period overnight of
a rain/snow mix as that LLJ continues to advect warmer air
aloft and provides a period of melting below the DGZ. For areas
across far NE OH and NW PA, expecting precipitation to primarily
remain as snow with model soundings keeping the entire column
below freezing. In areas of transition between rain/snow, there
is a potential for some graupel to develop, especially across
the higher terrain of NE OH. This system should be a pretty
quick system, resulting in snowfall totals of 1-3" across NW PA
and far NE OH. In the heaviest bands of snow showers, rates
could approach 1 inch per hour and gusty winds may further act
to reduce visibilities.
As the front departs to the east Tuesday morning, a predominantly
northwest flow will push across Lake Erie with marginal 850 mb
temperatures of -4 to -6C. This could allow for a brief period of
lake effect snow showers Tuesday morning into the early afternoon
hours, although additional accumulations should remain less than 1".
By Tuesday afternoon, high pressure builds over the area and allows
for all precipitation to cease for much of Tuesday through Tuesday
night.
The overnight lows for tonight will drop into the mid 30s for much
of the area, cooling a bit more into the upper 20s to low 30s across
NW PA. Lows will be a bit cooler Tuesday night behind the cold front
with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s across the
area. High temperatures on Tuesday will remain mild for this time of
year, climbing into he mid to upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge will begin to build over the region at the start of the
short term period, but a weak shortwave may ripple across the region
at some point Wednesday which could usher isolated to widely
scattered rain showers into southwestern zones. However, moisture
may be limited due to strong high pressure to the east so opted to
maintain slight chance PoPs (~20 percent) for the time being.
Otherwise, dry weather is expected through Thursday night.
Temperatures will gradually rise through the short term period with
highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s giving way to upper 30s to lower
40s in NE OH and NW PA and low to mid 40s across north-central and
NW OH on Thursday. Overnight lows be in the upper 20s to mid 30s
Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper ridge will maintain influence through the first half of Friday
before a warm front lifts into the region Friday afternoon and
evening. Rain chances increase in western zones starting as early as
Friday night with chance PoPs (30 to 40 percent) expanding east
across the remainder of the local area by Saturday morning or
afternoon as a trough potentially lifts into the region. Confidence
in the synoptic pattern for Saturday remains low, so will need to
continue to refine PoPs as guidance begins to align a bit better.
There's higher confidence that a more robust upper trough advances
east towards the area Sunday and there's a decent chance that most
locations see at least scattered rain showers towards the end of the
weekend. With that being said, there's still uncertainty in the
placement of the development of a surface low Sunday, which will
influence rain chances. Have likely PoPs for all locations at some
point Sunday/Sunday night. Rain chances continue through Monday as
upper troughing potentially persists over the eastern Great Lakes.
Warm air advection will allow temperatures to soar to well above
normal values Friday through the weekend before temps slowly begin
to moderate Monday. Saturday will likely be the warmest day of the
period with widespread upper 40s to mid 50s expected. A few spots
west of I-71 might even attempt to reach the upper 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
An area of precipitation is observed on radar across Northwest
Ohio, over Lake Erie, and entering the lakeshore areas of
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Most of this is
currently falling as rain, though there has been a few
observations of ice pellets in far Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. Precipitation should continue to overspread the
region as it moves eastward. Precipitation type should remain
primarily rain west of I-77, with a zone of wintry mix from I-77
to the OH/PA state line, mixed with rain, snow, and ice pellets
at times. Precipitation should mainly fall as snow in Northwest
Pennsylvania with light snow accumulations of one to two inches
of snow possible. Snow could be moderate to heavy at times with
visibilities briefly as low as 1/2 SM. Ceilings will quickly
drop to MVFR, with periods of IFR especially in the eastern part
of the forecast area. Precipitation gradually ends from west to
east tonight, with IFR and lower ceilings backfilling tonight
and lasting through at least part of the day Tuesday.
Southwest winds of 8 to 12 knots for the next couple hours
become less than 5 knots and out of the north by Tuesday
afternoon.
Outlook...Non-VFR with low clouds and isolated rain showers may
continue into Wednesday through Thursday morning. Non-VFR is
possible with scattered rain showers on Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots will persist through this evening
before shifting to the west/northwest late tonight or early Tuesday
morning and diminishing to around 10 knots. Opted to expand the
Small Craft Advisory west to Willowick, OH since winds will be right
around 20 knots this afternoon/evening and waves will likely build
to 2 to 5 feet as winds become more onshore tonight. The Small Craft
Advisory will end at 12Z/7 AM Tuesday. From there, winds will be
variable and 10 knots or less through at least Friday morning before
southeast winds increase to 10 to 15 knots Friday afternoon or
evening through Saturday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Maines
LONG TERM...Maines
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Maines
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 23, 9:38 PM EST---------------
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