JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 22, 4:15 AM EST492
FXUS63 KJKL 220915
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
415 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold temperatures will continue through tonight, followed by a
warming trend through the rest of week.
- There will be a potential for rain at times from Monday night
through Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 415 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
Early this morning, the axis of an upper level trough extended
from the Canadian Maritimes to New England to right along the
eastern seaboard to FL while an upper level ridge extended from
east of Mexico across Mexico and portions of southwest Conus to
the High Plains vicinity. A shortwave trough was moving across
portions of BC and Alberta into the northwest Conus in advance of
an upper level trough west of the west coast of the Conus and
Canada. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure was centered in
Ontario and Quebec with the axis of this ridge south across the
Great Lakes to the Lower oH Valley to the northwest Gulf of
Mexico. 850 mb temperatures had begun to moderate a bit after
bottoming out on Saturday and are currently analyzed in roughly
the -6C south to about -10C northeast part of the CWA range. Under
the sfc ridge and mid and upper level ridging building east from
the Plains/Central Conus low clouds have gradually been eroding
across the Commonwealth since Saturday evening, though a few
remained at this time from Rowan and Fleming counties north and
northeast into OH and WV. Deeper valleys/normally cold spot had
dropped off into the mid teens with upper teens to low 20s common
elsewhere. The highest elevations were in the lower teens with the
cold, but moderating airmass in place.
Today and tonight, the axis of the trough to the east and
northeast of the region should continue east and northwest and
well off the eastern seaboard with the pattern trending somewhat
zonal across the Conus. The shortwave upstream ridge will move
east with the axis of the ridge moving east of the MS River this
evening/tonight and across eastern KY tonight into early on
Monday. 500 mb height rises are expected today, tonight, and into
early on Monday. However, the shortwave initially extending into
the northwest Conus will move rather quickly east across the
Northern Rockies and Northern Plains to the upper MS Valley and
near the western Great Lakes by late tonight. This shortwave is
expected to continue east into the Great Lakes on Monday while the
associates sfc low also reaches the Great Lakes and the trailing
cold front drops south of Lake MI and into the mid MS Valley
vicinity late.
Following the cold start today and despite the warm air advection
aloft, the low level flow will be mostly light and easterly. This
should lead to another day with high temperatures roughly 10
degrees below normal for late December. Sfc high pressure
gradually shifting into the Northeast to mid Atlantic states will
still keep a grip on the weather tonight, with a southeast to
southerly gradient tonight. Deeper valleys should easily decouple
once again in this patter and drop well into the teens to around
20 while ridgetops should not drop below the mid 20s under some
light southeast to southerly breezes.
Ahead of the shortwave trough reaching the Great Lakes to Mid MS
Valley and the associated sfc low tracking across the Great Lakes
and the trailing sfc front dropping south of the Great Lakes and
sagging toward the mid MS Valley and OH Valley on Monday, southerly
flow and warm advection should lead to the first day of a several
day warmup this week. In fact, highs should end up a couple of
degrees above normal.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
A busy upper air pattern sets up a series of systems greeting the
state through the upcoming week. Monday night, an upper-level low
located over southeastern Ontario and Quebec, is modeled to have a
trailing cold front extending southwest over the Ohio Valley.
Meanwhile, another upper-level trough is modeled to be over the
Oklahoma-Arkansas area. A third system resides over the west coast,
off the California and Oregon coast.
Monday night, the above mentioned trailing cold front will work
across eastern Kentucky, leading to some light shower chances as it
works in from the northwest. Lows Monday night are forecasted in the
mid to upper 30s.
Tuesday, the Oklahoma-Arkansas system deepens, drawing on moisture
from the Gulf Of Mexico. This system wont effect eastern Kentucky
Tuesday, however the day is expected to be under cloudy skies with
light southerly winds and highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows
are forecasted in the low to mid 30s.
Wednesday, the second system that was modeled to strengthen over
Oklahoma, moves across Kentucky Wednesday producing showers. Highs
will continue to warm, rising into the low 50s, with lows dropping
into the upper 30s to low 40s. Meanwhile, the third system that was
off the California-Oregon coast, will have progressed eastward over
the four corners region of the southwest.
Thursday, a breif ridge of high pressure moves through with the
third system now over the Central Plains. Highs are forecasted in
the mid to upper 50s under light winds, with lows dropping into the
lower 40s.
Friday and Saturday, the third system pushes northward, into the
northern plains on Friday, with a trailing cold front producing
showers late Friday into Saturday. Highs Friday and Saturday are
forecasted in the upper 50s to low 60s, with lows each night in the
mid to upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
Low clouds have eroded over much of the area, with some clouds
near and north of the I 64 corridor or near KSYM into WV. A few
scattered low clouds were also near the WV border and from near
Black Mtn east near the VA border/Pine Mtn. These were generally
VFR with some of the cloud cover along the VA border in the MVFR
range. Overall, high pressure is expected to bring a continued
gradual decrease in the remaining low clouds overnight and VFR
throughout the period. Winds will generally be light and variable
with the high dominating.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 22, 4:15 AM EST---------------
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