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973 FXUS64 KLIX 102032AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA232 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024An amplifying upper level trough extends from the upper Mississippi River Valley down to central Texas. This trough will sweep across the northern Gulf Coast now through Wednesday. In the near-term, showers and isolated storms have developed locally along a shear axis between that trough and upper ridge centered near Cuba. Moisture surging northward ahead of the approaching system has brought PW's up to around 1.7". This combined with lift from surface pressure falls and isentropic lift has resulted in relatively highly efficient precip processes. 1 to 2 inch per hour rates can be expected based on recent radar estimates. Although individual cells are moving quickly to the northeast, the parent line has been quite slow to progress eastward. Should see this continue over the next few to several hours. Some help in eastward progression will come as the actual cold front, roughly along a line from Jackson MS to Natchez to Lake Charles, moves into the CWA. The POPs forecast and Flash Flood Watch have been updated to account for the latest radar trends. MEFFER&&.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday night)Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024A generally cooler and dry forecast is in store for the remainder of the week as the trough pushes through and heads towards the Atlantic Ocean. 1030mb surface ridge will drive in temps a good 10 degrees below normal, which equates to mid 50s for highs and 30s/40s for lows, for a couple days. Zonal flow aloft Friday into the weekend will allow for rebounding temps. Extended global model solutions suggest a mid latitude upper level trough will track across the country from west to east this weekend. What makes the POP forecast more challenging is that models show the trough pulling northeast as it approaches the mid Mississippi Valley. That track would cause the associated frontal boundary to stall well north of the CWA and limit lift for more widespread shower/storm development. There does appear that there will be ample time for leadup moisture return, so at the least will probably have lighter showers develop locally. MEFFER&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024A line of mostly showers ahead of an approaching cold front is slowly moving south and east. As this line passes over terminals, expect visibilities and ceilings to drop into IFR or LIFR categories. Once the line moves out, visibilities will improve and ceilings to some degree. It'll just take more time for higher cloud decks to rise. VFR conditions will take over later this afternoon and evening as the actual cold front moves through. It's then that winds shift to the northwest and can expect to see gusts around 20 knots, even in the overnight period. MEFFER&&.MARINE...Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024An amplifying upper level trough extends from the upper Mississippi River Valley down to central Texas. This trough will sweep across the northern Gulf Coast now through Wednesday and drive a cold front through the local coastal waters. Gradient winds in open Gulf waters west of the Mississippi River have been surprisingly strong given how close the front is. Due to these stronger wind obs, have gone ahead and started the SCY for portions of the marine zones. Tight pressure gradient and strong cold air advection still expected to bring strong SCY to Gale conditions to marine areas tonight. Winds will ease through the day Wed and should be low enough Thu morning to drop all headlines. Winds will shift to easterly by the end of the week.MEFFER&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 38 54 32 56 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 43 59 37 60 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 43 58 35 58 / 90 0 0 0 MSY 46 56 42 57 / 90 0 0 0 GPT 43 56 37 57 / 100 0 0 0 PQL 44 59 34 60 / 100 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ058>060-064>070- 076>080-087>090.GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ550-552- 555-570-572-575. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ550- 552-555-570-572-575-577. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ557.MS...Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ077-083>088.GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ532-534-536-538. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ552-555- 570-572-575. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ552- 555-570-572-575-577. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ552-555-570-572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...MELONG TERM....MEAVIATION...MEMARINE...ME
