LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 21, 12:07 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...248
FXUS63 KLMK 210507
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1207 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Few lingering snow showers/flurries and isolated freezing drizzle
this evening.
* Colder than normal temperatures through the weekend.
* Above normal temperatures are likely for mid-to-late next week.
While a washout is not expected around Christmas, persistent
chances for light rain are expected through much of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2024
A large area of drizzle has been steadily moving through the Blue
Grass region this evening. Temperatures have been in the 32-36
degree range, and in some spots have actually gone up a degree in
the past hour or two. Road pavement temperatures on the interstates
are still in the lower and middle 40s and traffic cameras have been
showing just wet pavement. Traffic speed monitoring has been
indicating that traffic is moving at normal speeds.
Dry air can be seen on satellite loops punching southward into the
Ohio Valley, and the back edge of the Blue Grass drizzle has been
making steady progress eastward. Some breaks in the overcast have
even developed from Washington and Scott counties in southern
Indiana to near Elizabethtown. However, a long fetch off the Great
Lakes is feeding additional clouds into the region, and general
widespread cloudiness is still expected for the rest of the night.
Precipitation chances should diminish overnight as a weak surface
trough to our north this evening slips off to the east and strong
high pressure builds in from the west. Surface temperatures will
slip below freezing tonight and temperatures near the top of the
cloud layer support the possibility of some frozen hydrometeor
production. However, any flurries or wintry mix overnight would be
very light.
Though winds have stayed gusty this evening, they have not been able
to dry off the roads in the Blue Grass due to the persistent
drizzle. Though precipitation is expected to wane overnight, the
winds will relax some as well. So, even though road temperatures are
still warm at this time, wet untreated elevated roadways could
develop a few slick spots by morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2024
Bulk of the snow has tapered off this afternoon per observations and
WSR-88D radar imagery. Temperatures were around the freezing mark,
plus or minus a degree on either of 32. It was blustery, with wind
gusts of 15 to 25 mph producing wind chill values in the low to mid
20s. Sfc low that brought the midday snow shower has moved off to
the east and started to phase with a new developing sfc low off the
Mid-Atlantic coast. A weak sfc trough to our north is expected to
slowly drop south and could spark some additional light snow showers
or flurries during the evening. There is also a small chance we
could see a brief period of freezing drizzle this evening but drier
air will filter in with the strong cold air advection and northwest
flow through the rest of the overnight and into the morning. Skies
will remain cloudy overnight and winds will slowly diminish as the
pressure gradient over the Ohio Valley begins to relax. Lows will be
chilly falling into the mid 20s overnight but not as cold as they
could be thanks to low clouds lingering overnight.
Post frontal, cyclonic flow tends to make for a challenging cloud
forecast and that looks to be the situation as we go into tomorrow.
After the chilly start, strong CAA continues over the area with
850mb temperatures between -10 to -12 degrees. Highs will be similar
to what we had this afternoon, topping out in the mid 30s. If skies
clear quickly temperatures could be warmer but for now kind of went
with a reasonable solution based on the potential for lingering
cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2024
Saturday Night through Monday...
A cold, dry airmass will be in place Saturday night and Sunday. High
pressure is forecast to build east over the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. By Sunday, we start to see some weak WAA as the low-level
ridging slips to the east.
Some lingering clouds in the northeastern CWA should mostly clear by
late Saturday night. It'll be a mostly clear night with a light
easterly sfc wind and good radiational cooling conditions. Lows
Sunday morning will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. The rest of
Sunday looks cool, dry, and mostly sunny. Temperatures are forecast
to rebound into the mid/upper 30s in southern IN and north-central
KY. South-central KY should see afternoon highs in the lower 40s.
SW low-level flow increases heading into Monday ahead of a weak low
pressure system traversing the Midwest. Lows Sunday night should
range through the 20s. We will likely stay dry on Monday, but see
increasing clouds from the northwest. Look for afternoon highs in
the mid 40s to around 50.
Monday Night through Thursday Night...
The weakening wave to the north continues east across the Great
Lakes Monday night and leaves behind a diffuse, stalling sfc
boundary over the Ohio Valley. Deepening moisture may result in some
patchy light rain, but forcing looks very weak. Lows in the
mid/upper 30s should be common.
We will then have a fairly moist and gradually warming airmass in
place through the middle portion of next week, including Christmas.
Occasional light rain looks possible through this period, but timing
remains uncertain. In general, lift looks weak and any rainfall will
be light. But we can also expect dry stretches through this time.
Highs in the mid/upper 40s look possible for Christmas Eve, with
highs in the low to mid 50s for Christmas Day.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2024
As large upper troughing moves off to the northeast, the Ohio Valley
remains within northwest flow. Moisture trapped under a pronounced
subsidence inversion has allowed to shallow low level clouds to
persist over the region. These clouds waver from VFR to high-end
MVFR and will begin to thin by mid-morning. Very light snow is
moving near SDF that originated as a fetch off Lake Michigan, this
will dissipate within the next few hours. Likely only seeing a few
flurries out of these light radar echoes.
Winds will slowly begin to relax as high pressure pushes tight
pressure gradients out of the region. Towards Saturday evening,
winds will begin to veer to the east as high pressure moves over the
Great Lakes region.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...SRM
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 21, 12:07 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
