MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 13, 5:01 AM CST ...New AVIATION...495
FXUS64 KMOB 131101
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
501 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024
VFR conditions will persist with a light easterly to southeasterly
wind. BB/03
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday night)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024
A gradual warmup is on the docket this weekend as we get ready for
our next round of systems. Zonal flow a loft will gradually become
southwesterly through Friday into Saturday as a surface high
pushes east across the south. This will result in winds becoming
more easterly to southeasterly at the surface. A subtle shortwave
trough will strengthen and cutoff into a low on Saturday as it
quickly lifts north into the Great Lakes region. Forcing will
likely be removed off to our northwest; however, we could see some
scattered showers Saturday night as the environment moistens up. With
no re- enforcing northerly winds, moisture and warmer
temperatures will gradually lift north. This will result in highs
slowly climbing into the low 60s today and then mid to uppers 60s
on Saturday. With the increasing easterly to southeasterly flow,
surf conditions will also increase leading to a high risk of rip
currents. Given the wind component beaches around Destin may be
more in the Moderate risk; however, just a slight jog west to
where beaches are more south facing will result in a quick
increase in risk. BB/03
LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024
An upper trof evolves over the central states through Sunday night
then progresses across the interior eastern states Monday night into
Tuesday. An associated surface low looks to bring a trailing cold
front into the region Monday night, but the boundary decelerates
upon encountering a surface ridge over the extreme southeast states.
Given this, the frontal boundary looks to manage to weakly move into
the interior portion of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon before
stalling. Mainly dry conditions are anticipated over the forecast
area on Sunday, except for some small pops mainly near the Alabama
coast. Monday will be similarly mainly dry, although slight chance
pops will be in place over the westernmost portion of the area. A
series of shortwaves look to move across the area Monday night as
the weakening frontal boundary approaches, and have gone with chance
to likely pops west of I-65 with lesser pops further to the east.
Mainly slight chance pops are in place for Tuesday as the weak
boundary settles into the area. Another upper trof meanwhile
develops over the central CONUS, then amplifies substantially while
progressing into the eastern states through Wednesday night. The
weak boundary over the forecast area is anticipated to dissipate
Tuesday night, then another cold front pushes through the forecast
area Wednesday night, although there is timing uncertainty with
this next front. Have continued with slight chance pops for
Wednesday, then chance pops follow for Wednesday night and have kept
in chance pops for Thursday as well given the uncertainties with the
pattern. Instability looks to remain rather low through Monday,
though after this point it becomes less clear. Will continue
to monitor. /29
MARINE...
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024
A moderate easterly flow today will gradually increase to a strong
east southeasterly flow Friday night through Saturday. A small
craft advisory has been issued for the Gulf waters out 20 to 60
nm. Small craft should exercise caution for the nearshore Gulf
waters through Saturday. Winds will remain a moderate to
occasionally strong easterly into early next week. BB/03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 62 48 68 55 71 56 73 56 / 0 0 10 10 10 0 10 30
Pensacola 63 52 68 58 70 59 71 59 / 0 0 0 20 10 0 0 20
Destin 64 53 69 59 72 59 73 60 / 0 0 0 20 10 0 0 10
Evergreen 63 43 68 52 70 51 74 52 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 0 20
Waynesboro 60 42 68 52 71 52 73 54 / 0 0 0 20 10 0 20 50
Camden 59 41 66 53 67 51 71 52 / 0 0 0 20 10 0 10 40
Crestview 63 44 70 53 73 52 77 52 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Saturday
afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Saturday
afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM CST Saturday
for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
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Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 13, 5:01 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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