PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 18, 6:47 AM CST575
FXUS63 KPAH 181247
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
647 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- It will turn much colder and drier for Friday through the
weekend. Morning wind chill values in the teens are forecast.
Some flurries or light snow will be possible Friday over
southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile.
- Temperatures will moderate towards normal values for early
next week leading up to Christmas. Small rain chances return
to the forecast on Christmas Eve.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024
The leading line of convection has exited the area and the
stratiform rain will diminish in the next few hours. Therefore,
the severe weather and flooding threat has ended and the Flood
Watch has been cancelled.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024
A fairly solid convective line is moving quickly eastward
across the region and will reach southwest Indiana and west
Kentucky shortly. Based on its current pace, it will clear the
entire region by 6 AM. We have already gotten a 32kt gust from
KCGI with the line, so there is little doubt that it is
surface-based. The southern end of the line is impinging on
temperatures and dewpoints in the lower 60s, but that is limited
to southern portions the Purchase Area and will struggle to make
it east of the lakes. Therefore any severe threat should be
limited to the next hour or two over the Purchase Area. With
0-3km bulk shear around 35kts from the west southwest, portions
of the line that are oriented more north to south will have the
best chances at producing damaging winds and possibly a few
brief tornadoes.
As for the Flood Watch, the current line is moving fast enough
to prevent any overly heavy rainfall, but there is some
potential for the convection over Arkansas to linger or train
over the Watch area toward daybreak. Will keep it going,
although it will not likely be needed past 9 AM. The rainfall
should exit the entire area by 18Z.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track. The latest guidance is a
little more bullish for some flurries or light snow Friday
morning over portions of southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile. A
light dusting cannot be ruled out in the far northeast portions
of the region. Temperatures should be at or above freezing, so
any accumulation should be on grass and elevated surfaces.
Temperatures this weekend are still on track to be cold, but not
extremely so. Winds will be light, so the wind chill will not be
tremendous factor. The warmup is set for Monday through
Christmas Day. Models still uncertain on when to bring our next
chance of rain to the region, but it could happen at any point
from Monday night through Christmas. Santa may have a wet ride
through the Quad State.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024
An area of moderate rain will shift east of the area early this
morning, but IFR and LIFR ceilings with MVFR drizzle and fog
will linger behind it through the morning. Gradual improvement
is expected midday into the afternoon, but there is a decent
signal that MVFR or lower ceilings will quickly return east of
the Mississippi around sunset. If that layer develops it is
likely to linger through the end of the period. Where the clouds
don't develop fog develop will be possible overnight as winds
diminish. Northwest winds will gust 15-20kts through most of the
day over the entire region.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 18, 6:47 AM CST---------------
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