ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 14, 12:17 AM EST120
FXUS61 KILN 140517
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1217 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly warmer air will begin to build into the region later
through Saturday, with widespread rain expected Saturday night
into Sunday. Above normal temperatures will evolve this weekend
through the first half of the workweek, with several bouts of
widespread rain during this stretch as well.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High pressure remains centered northeast of the Ohio Valley tonight.
Fair weather persists along with light easterly flow. Lows will
be a bit more mild tonight cross the south due to increased mid
and upper level clouds and lack of CAA. Forecast lows are in
the upper teens north of I-70 to the upper 20s south of the Ohio
River.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
By Saturday morning, a mid-level ridge axis is in place over the
region, with a closed low moving in from the west. Surface high
pressure to the east and low pressure to the west provides easterly
to east-southeasterly flow throughout the day.
Into the afternoon, the closed low to the west and its associated
surface low begins to slow in its eastward progress, weakening as it
does so. Nevertheless, strong moisture advection and diffluence
aloft is sufficient enough to drive widespread periods of light to
moderate rain into the area by early evening from west to east. By
roughly midnight, rain will have overspread the entire area. The
overall forcing begins to weaken overnight, shifting off to the
east. However, as the closed low begins to shift through the Great
Lakes, remnant forcing will drive additional rain into the long term
period.
For rainfall amounts, this generally looks like a broad quarter to
half inch for nearly everyone. When looking at the potential for
seeing over an inch, probabilities drop quite significantly (less
than 10%), with this potential highlighted along the Ohio/Indiana
border and then eventually into the greater Cincinnati/Tri-state
area into Sunday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain will overspread the region early Monday morning ahead of an
approaching cold front. Upper level ridge crosses the CWA overnight
and exits to the east on Monday, followed by falling heights until
the axis of the upper trough crosses Monday evening with the cold
front. Precip cuts off from w-e in the evening and a surface high
builds to the west.
The surface high gets shunted to the northeast and a strong push of
moisture in deep southwest flow follows a surface low. The low will
track sw-ne on Wednesday, passing se of the CWA and creating a good
swath of rain over se CWA as cold air undercuts the warmer and more
moist airmass being drawn in with the low. L/w trough passes over
early Thursday, followed by ridging aloft and a strong surface high
pressure center in the Midwest.
Temperatures will warm into the 50s on Sunday and Monday, then drop
through the 40s, ending up in the 30s for Thurs and Fri. Lows will
start in the 40s and then drop through the forecast, ending in the
mid 20s by Friday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT/BKN mid/high clouds will stream through the region from
time-to-time through the afternoon before thicker/lower cloud
cover arrives by/after 00z progressively from SW to NE. Rapid
moistening of the profile will occur after 00z, with widespread
RA overspreading the area between 00z-06z.
As the steady RA moves in, VFR CIGs will transition to MVFR, and
eventually IFR, after 06z Sunday. MVFR VSBYs are expected with
the steadiest/heaviest RA toward the end of the period and
beyond.
Easterly flow at 8-12kts will be maintained through 00z before
going more out of the SE by the end of the period.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions are likely Saturday night
into early Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 14, 12:17 AM EST---------------
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