BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 3:48 AM EST167
FXUS61 KBOX 120848
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
348 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry, blustery and seasonably chilly temperatures are on
tap for today. Cold/Below normal temperatures with dry weather
will be in place for Friday and Saturday. Pattern trends more
unsettled later Sunday through next week with periods of
precipitation possible. Temperatures moderate to above normal
levels for the early part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
345 AM Update...
* Blustery/chilly today under a mixture of clouds & sun
* A brief passing snow shower possible in western/northern MA
Yesterday/s storm system that brought the heavy rain and strong
winds to the region was racing northward across Quebec early
this morning. In its wake...a blustery westerly flow of chillier
air was working back into the region. The cold advection will
offset diurnal heating with daytime temperatures mainly in the
middle 30s to the lower 40s. May see temps drop a few degrees
from those levels by late afternoon given continued cold
advection. Bufkit soundings also show good mixing and expect
westerly wind gusts on the order of 25 to 30 mph with a few
gusts up to 35 mph. This will result in Wind Chills mainly in
the 20s through the afternoon...so it will feel much colder
than yesterday/s unseasonably mild temperatures.
We expect a mixture of clouds and sunshine today with the bulk
of the clouds across northern MA in the vicinity of a northern
stream shortwave. This shortwave is moisture starved with best
forcing to our north...but coupled with some remnant Lake
moisture can not rule out a brief passing flurry/snow shower
across western and northern MA today. Overall though it will be
a dry...but blustery and seasonably chilly day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Key Points...
* Dry & cold tonight with lows mainly upper teens to lower 20s
* Sunny and cold Fri with highs upper 20s to middle 30s
Details...
Tonight...
Westerly flow aloft and at the surface will result in a dry but
cold night with skies trending towards mostly clear. Overnight
low temps should mainly be in the upper teens to the lower 20s
with middle 20s in the Urban Heat Islands of Boston and
Providence.
Friday...
A 1040+ MB high pressure system over the Great Lakes will nose
eastward. This should result in lots of sunshine but it will be
cold. 850T between -14C and -16C should result in high temps in
the upper 20s across the high terrain to mainly between 30 and
35 elsewhere. These readings will be about 10 degrees below
normal of this time of year. Northwest wind gusts around 20 mph
with a few gusts near 25 mph are expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry conditions through the first half of weekend. Pattern leans
unsettled Sun through next week with periods of precipitation
possible.
* Below normal temperatures for the weekend, trending above normal
early next week.
Expect another night of efficient radiational cooling Friday night
with clear skies and cooler air still in place. Temperatures likely
drop into the mid to upper teens across most areas with some low 20s
for some of the coastal locations. The higher terrain spots across
the interior may see lows drop into the lower teens.
Temperatures remain below normal Saturday with highs in the 30s
across southern New England. Winds should stay on the lighter side
keeping wind chill values close to actual temperatures. With high
pressure in place conditions remain dry.
Ensemble guidance continues to show a consensus on a shift to a more
unsettled/active pattern Sunday into next week. There is a general
signal for increased moisture phased with the passage of a few
shortwave troughs in the flow aloft. This will give way to periods
precipitation. However, aside from the ensemble means, individual
models/ens solutions are still displaying differences with respect
to the details of these disturbances, particularly the timing/speed
of the systems. Overall, expect periods of precipitation starting as
early as early Sunday evening through at least mid-week. There is
some potential for light mixed precip/icing for parts of the
interior at the onset of precipitation late Sun, but this is still
low confidence given that there isn't a consensus on timing just
yet. There is a hint of better moisture being in place Tuesday which
may lead to more widespread chances for precipitation.
Ensembles further diverge toward the end of the week. As a result of
differences in the upper pattern, there is uncertainty in
temperatures Thursday with some solutions leaning toward a cooler
airmass in place and others showing a ridge with highs closer to
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update:
Thursday...High Confidence.
The last of the main line of heavy rain has moved east of the
terminals. A few scattered showers behind it are possible
through 08z. Ceilings continue to improve as rain exits,
becoming VFR by 08-12z. Gusty west winds around 20-30 knots,
potentially a bit higher near the Cape and higher elevations.
This will continue through Thursday afternoon. A SCT-BKN deck
of clouds 3000-5000 ft develops mid to late morning through the
afternoon.
Thursday Night...High confidence.
VFR. Diminishing west wind, gusts less than 20 knots.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence in TAF.
A few showers possible through 08z with ceilings improving
toward VFR by 08-12z. Gusty west winds up to 30 knots through
Thursday afternoon. SCT to BKN decks develop late morning at
around 3000-5000 ft. Wind gusts diminish early evening.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate Confidence in TAF.
Showers could linger until 08z. CIGS become VFR by 08z tonight.
Gusty west winds up to 30 knots possible through Thursday
afternoon.
Outlook /Friday through
Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday through Sunday: VFR.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High Confidence.
Westerly wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots are on tap for today in
the cold air advection pattern behind yesterday/s front.
Strongest of the winds will be across the southern waters where
we have Gale Warnings all day. Across our northern waters...we
should be able to replace Gales with small craft headlines later
this morning as gusts will be more on the order of 30 knots. 8
to 15 foot seas over many of our waters will gradually lower
through the day...but they will remain quite rough.
Tonight and Friday...High Confidence.
Cold Advection over the relatively mild ocean will result in W
wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots persisting over the open waters
tonight into Friday. We will need small craft headlines for many
waters.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ230-231-236-
251.
Gale Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ232>235-237-
254>256.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...Frank/Mensch
MARINE...Frank/Mensch
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 3:48 AM EST----------------
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