Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1170 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE180
AWUS01 KWNH 100426
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-101000-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1170
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EST Mon Dec 09 2024
Areas affected...southern AL, southwestern GA, northern FL
Panhandle
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 100423Z - 101000Z
SUMMARY... Localized flash flooding will be possible over southern
AL, southwestern GA into northern portions of the FL Panhandle.
Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr with localized totals of 2-4 inches
may occur.
DISCUSSION...An axis of training showers and embedded
thunderstorms has resulted in a narrow axis of 2-4 inches of rain
over southwestern AL since roughly 12Z. Radar imagery from 04Z
showed that a WSW to ENE axis of moderate to heavy rain continued
to affect southern AL but with slow eastward progression. The
heavy rain was occurring near a low level convergence axis, which
was located just above the surface and extended from the
northwestern tip of the western FL Panhandle across the southern
AL/GA border. Precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.8 inches and
generally weak instability near 500 J/kg were supporting localized
rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr at times. Water vapor imagery showed
weakly diffluent flow over the region and ascent may be aided by
lift occurring within the right-entrance region of a RAP
forecast/developing 130 kt jet max over northern AL/eastern TN.
Southerly to southwesterly low level flow is forecast to maintain
over the region through the night along with 500-1000 J/kg
ML/MUCAPE just south of the convergence axis, which should
continue to slowly translate east over the next few hours ahead of
an upstream upper trough over the western U.S. and resultant
mid-level height falls. While overall weakening is expected as the
low level convergence axis loses definition, pockets of short term
training may be enough to support additional 1-2 in/hr rates at
times from southern Al into southwestern GA and the northern FL
Panhandle through ~10Z. Also, additional shower redevelopment will
be possible toward 10Z back to the west, ahead of a cold front to
be approaching from the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Due today's rainfall, flash flood guidance is 2-3 inches in 3
hours across northern portions of the MPD threat area. The
potential for an additional 2-4 inches may cause localized flash
flooding over urban or otherwise sensitive locations of the region.
Otto
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...
ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 32778527 32478442 31658451 31158486 30838560
30738682 30738789 31198846 31808806 32498670
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1170 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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