CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 15, 1:43 PM EST062
FXUS61 KCLE 151843
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
143 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will continue across the region tonight, followed
by another one on Monday. A cold front will cross the region on
Monday night. High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley for
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The main freezing rain threat across the region has ended, as
temperatures and road/surface temperatures have largely risen
above freezing and any precipitation should fall as all rain and
not freeze to any surfaces. Therefore, have allowed for the
Winter Weather Advisory to expire at Noon. Some sheltered areas
of Northwest Pennsylvania could see another hour or so of
possible freezing rain, but impacts would be extremely marginal.
A batch of showers is starting to reenter the forecast area this
afternoon as the upper trough axis enters the region. Overall,
the rain pattern will be more showery with hit and miss rain
showers expected through the first part of tonight, mainly along
and right ahead of the trough. Will continue to highlight these
chances with a mix of likely and low categorical PoPs.
With a break in the rain tonight and with some low level warm
air advection, suspect that there will be some lower clouds and
fog that will form. Especially over area that will stay a little
cooler this afternoon and evening and still have some stray snow
remaining on the ground. Will have an area of fog mentioned in
the forecast for these areas and could see the need for a Dense
Fog Advisory, depending on how conditions deteriorate overnight.
The atmosphere isn't expected to completely decouple with clouds
overhead and southerly winds to 10 kt, but the warm advection
should overcome these elements to generate some fog and travel
issues for the Monday morning commute.
The next warm front and quickly approaching cold front
combination will be on deck for Monday and have PoPs ramping
back up to 100 percent as a swath of rain will fill in across
the area with this system. There will be some stronger warm air
advection with this warm front and temperatures may surge into
the mid 50s even with the clouds and rain across the region.
Unfortunately, the cold front is close behind and will clear out
the bulk of the rain and cool temperatures back down into the
30s for overnight lows. There will be flow off Lake Erie to
perhaps allow for some lingering rain showers in NE OH and NW
PA at the end of the period. Unfortunately, the cold air mass
with the front isn't very strong and the lake has cooled
significantly over the last couple of weeks, so the overall
lake instability will be lacking and the impact will be marginal
at best. Therefore, will only have some low chance PoPs to end
the period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Rain showers will continue in the eastern half of the area Monday
night as a trough and surface cold front continue to sweep east
across across the region. The front will exit to the east by early
Tuesday morning and post-frontal lake effect precipitation chances
appear to be very limited limited as a ridge quickly builds in
behind the front. Surface high pressure will provide a brief respite
in precipitation before low pressure begins to take shape over the
Ohio Valley as a trough digs south Tuesday night. Widespread rain
chances return by Wednesday morning as this low passes to the south
of the local area and a cold front approaches from the northwest.
The front and upper trough will likely cross the area at some point
Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night. A period of lake effect snow
is likely across the snowbelt as 850mb temperatures fall to -5 to -
10C late Wednesday night. Still too early to get specific on
accumulations, but there may be some minor snow accumulation in the
higher terrain of the snowbelt, mainly in the higher elevations of
NW PA.
Monday will be the warmest day of the period with highs in the low
to mid 50s and lows in the mid 30s expected. A few spots west of I-
71 might even approach 60 degrees Monday afternoon. Temperatures
begin to decline Tuesday and Wednesday with highs falling into the
40s both days and lows dropping into the low to mid 20s by Wednesday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lake effect precip should taper off during the day Thursday as an
upper ridge and surface high briefly build east into the region. By
Friday, a broad upper trough will drop out of the Upper Midwest with
a surface low meandering somewhere across the Great Lakes. A trough
will then settle over the Great Lakes through at least Saturday and
push a series of shortwaves across the region. As stated in the
previous long term discussion, there's still quite a bit of
uncertainty in the placement and timing of each disturbance, so
confidence in precipitation chances/timing remains low at this
point. Opted to maintain broad slight chance to chance PoPs (20 to
50 percent) with locally higher PoPs in the snowbelt to account for
potential lake effect snow due to cold air advection over Lake Erie.
Still far too early to discuss snow accumulation for the end of the
period, but will continue to assess the synoptic setup and potential
for accumulating snow in the upcoming days.
Expect below normal high temperatures for the long term period with
30s anticipated Thursday and Friday and 20s likely for Saturday.
Overnight lows will most likely drop into the 20s each night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
As a warm front crosses the airspace this afternoon, rain and
low ceilings continues to spread into the region and the VFR
only remains closest to the Lake Erie shoreline for the
time being. Satellite and surface observations show a broad
area of IFR ceilings and these will continue to lift north and
into the airspace over the next several hours. Suspect that all
terminals will reach IFR in the next hour or two, except KERI,
where downslope flow will abate the low level cloud cover until
evening. A second round of rain showers with the upper trough
are entering the area this afternoon and bringing another round
of non-VFR visibility to the region, which may also trend down
to IFR with the ceilings. Rain will exit with the departure of
the upper trough axis this evening and will have a break in the
rain for all of the terminals. IFR ceilings should remain, but
this break could potentially allow for some opportunity for
lower IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibility to develop across the
area, as low level warm air advection continues. The next round
of rain will enter with the next warm front on Monday and have
started reintroducing rain toward the end of the TAF period.
Winds will be southeast shifting to the south. Some gusts remain
possible this afternoon but should subside for tonight. Winds
will increase again on Monday with the next warm front.
Outlook...Rain and non-VFR conditions will continue into Monday
night with some non-VFR ceilings continuing into Tuesday. A pair
of weather systems could bring periodic non-VFR in rain then
snow for Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally expect unsettled marine conditions over the next several
days as a series of systems cross the Great Lakes.
Southeast flow will increase throughout the day today with sustained
winds of 15 to 25 knots expected over the lake by late morning. The
highest winds and waves can be expected in the open waters of the
central basin this afternoon and with downsloping in the nearshore
zones of the eastern basin from Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH to Ripley, NY
this afternoon into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued
for the eastern basin from 18Z/1 PM today until 09Z/4 AM Monday
morning. Can't completely rule out the issuance of a shorter Small
Craft Advisory from roughly Vermilion to Geneva-on-the-Lake late
this morning into this afternoon, but opted against issuing for now
since confidence in nearshore zones experiencing winds of 20+ knots
is much lower and the duration will be much shorter.
Southeast winds will briefly diminish to 10 to 15 knots Monday
morning before increasing to 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon and
shifting to the southwest and increasing further to 20 to 30 knots
as a cold front crosses the lake Monday night through much of
Tuesday. Winds may exceed 30 knots mainly in the open waters of the
eastern basin during this time. Small Craft Advisories will be
needed and will continue to monitor the potential for gales as
additional high resolution guidance becomes available in upcoming
updates. At the moment, deterministic guidance suggests that winds
will remain below 34 knots. Expect southwest winds to diminish to 10
to 15 knots Tuesday night into Wednesday. Northwest flow will
develop over the lake behind a cold front with winds likely
increasing to 15 to 25 knots Wednesday night through at least
Thursday morning so additional Small Craft Advisories will be likely
during this time.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ148-149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Maines
LONG TERM...Maines
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Maines
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 15, 1:43 PM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
