JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 14, 4:02 AM EST072
FXUS63 KJKL 140902
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
402 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures warm to above normal this weekend into early next
week.
- Periods of rain are forecast to impact the area at times late
this evening through much of the next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 401 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
Early morning update is out with an update to add valley fog in
the southeastern KY valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
Transient upper ridging over eastern Kentucky early this morning
will give way to an approaching negatively-tilted upper low/trough
approaching the area tonight and passing the area Sunday on its way
to the Lower Great Lakes region. By the end of the period early
Sunday evening, another transient shortwave ridge will be
approaching the area from the west ahead of another developing
cold front over the Central U.S.
A strong veering wind profile with height indicative of warm
advection will occur through the period, which will bring warmer
conditions into the region after this morning's chilly conditions,
but also plentiful cloud cover and, beginning tonight, precipitation
chances in the form of showers that will continue through the end of
the period early Sunday evening. The cloud cover and warm, moist
advection into the region will temper temperatures on the high end
but also result in mild low temperatures, with highs in the 50s
today and tomorrow, and lows tonight in the 40s.
24-hour QPF ending at 7 PM Sunday is most likely to range from
between 0.75" and 1.00" toward our Bluegrass counties tailing off
to between 0.25" and 0.50" over far southeastern Kentucky, which
will experience some downslope drying from low-level southeast
flow over Pine Mountain.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
The period begins with the CWA in the middle of a system moving
through the Commonwealth. The associated cold front will cross
through the CWA early Monday morning. However, another system
tracking on the heels of the exiting system will allow for a brief
lull in PoP before a secondary cold front brings another round of
showers from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. Forecast
rainfall amount continues to paint the Bluegrass and I-64 corridor as
the big winner as far as rainfall is concerned. These areas are
expected to see around an 1.50" through Tuesday afternoon.
Decreasing rainfall totals are expected moving southeast toward the
high terrain due to downsloping cutting into QPF totals. However,
total amounts across the southeastern high terrain could reach up to
around 0.75" through Tuesday afternoon.
Weak high pressure will build back into the area late Tuesday
afternoon and will linger into early Wednesday but will quickly
break down as another system approaches the area. The third system
of the period is forecast to develop over the southern Mississippi
Valley and eject northeast into the Tennessee Valley early Wednesday
morning. As this system moves northeast, increasing PoP chances are
expected through the day and persist through the end of the period.
As colder air filters into the region, critical thicknesses
indicate the possibility of rain changing over to snow and with
warming expected through the day, a change back to rain will follow
as temperatures continue to warm. This will be the pattern for the
end of the forecast period as the Wednesday system pulls off to the
east and another system develops and tracks through the Great Lakes.
This will bring another round of possible rain/snow showers through
the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Although a
weakening stationary front will remain across the area, low level
moisture is not expected to increase until after 18Z. Thus clouds
that cross the area will be primarily high clouds, with some mid
clouds from time to time through 18Z. A few low clouds may begin
to arrive in western portions of the area from 18Z to 00Z, before
becoming more prevalent through 06Z. Some showers will also
arrive from the west late in the period, with the low levels
gradually saturating though not sufficiently for reductions of
ceilings nor visibility to MVFR or lower. Those reductions should
arrive after the period. High clouds and occasionally some mid
level clouds are expected Winds be light and variable through 14Z,
before trending east to southeast at less than 10KT to end the
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 14, 4:02 AM EST---------------
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