IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 2:12 PM EST801
FXUS63 KIWX 121912
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
212 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A band of light to moderate snow over central Indiana will
impact the southern tier of the CWA through the late afternoon
into the early evening. Snowfall accumulations are expected to
remain light, generally only a few tenths of an inch.
- A warming trend can be expected over the next several days,
with widespread rain expected from Saturday into early Sunday,
and again on Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2024
Lake effect snow showers have decreased considerably in both
coverage and intensity across Berrien and Cass Counties in
southern MI over the past several hours w/ parameters slowly
starting to become less favorable. A few flurries or light snow
showers will remain possible into the early evening, but the
threat for accumulations has ended which supported the on-time
expiration of the inherited Winter Weather Advisory. The main
near-term focus shifts to a separate snow band currently over
central IL. This band, driven by strong baroclinicity and low-
level frontogenesis resulting from increasing H85 WAA, should
shift southeastward into central IN during the late afternoon
into the early evening hours. Multiple CAMs would suggest the
heaviest portion of this band remaining just south of the CWA,
though moderate snow may fall across our southern tier of
counties w/ up to an inch of snow possible with some of the
heavier bands. This should be fairly short lived w/ conditions
improving quickly by mid evening w/ the arrival of a substantial
mid-level dry punch.
Cold temperatures persist w/ much of the area only seeing high
temperatures in the teens this afternoon. Fortunately, we should
see some moderation in temperatures w/ overnight lows unlikely
to drop much from current readings given the thick mid/upper-
level cloud deck beneath the upper jet as well as increasing WAA
aloft. A warming trend will commence through the weekend into
early next week as upper-level ridging gains control across the
eastern third of the CONUS and H85 temperatures soar to +2 to +4
deg C by Saturday afternoon, supporting highs in the 40s through
the weekend. Widespread rain will occur on Saturday ahead of a
sharp, negatively tilted upper trough lifts into the OH Valley
over the weekend.
The pattern remains warm, but very unsettled into early next
week as a very similar storm system traverses the region on
Monday. Highs on Monday may climb into the middle 50s w/ 850-mb
temperatures approaching +8 deg C. Numerous showers and thunder
storms appear likely on Monday across a large part of the area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2024
Broken to overcast skies are attempting to scatter out this
afternoon per satellite. Thus, am optimistic SBN ceilings will
become SCT shortly. Upstream, plenty of VFR ceilings bolsters
confidence.
One forecast element worth monitoring is a clipper system
streaking through central IL and soon into central IN. High
resolution guidance generally depicts this feature staying south
of KFWA. However, I cannot completely rule out a period of 6sm
-SHSN. Low confidence in that occuring, hence the dry TAF.
Upstream observations will be monitored.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hammer
AVIATION...Brown
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 2:12 PM EST---------------
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