MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 9, 12:21 PM CST ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...028
FXUS64 KMOB 091821
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1221 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
Latest radar animations show a nearly solid area of rains oriented
east northeast to west southwest streaming eastward, mainly along
and north of I-10. The forecast remains unsettled in the near
term, closer to and in this rain band with cigs varying from MVFR
to IFR categories as well as varying vsbys, the lower restrictions
being with the passage of RA/+RA. /10
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1221 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
09.12Z upper analysis shows the deep south under a west/southwest
flow at high levels in the geopotential height fields with short-
wave energy passing out of LA and expected to deamplify the
remainder of the day as it lifts across central MS/AL. At the
surface, we are warm sectored south of a better defined, but
quasi-stationary front draped from the Red River Valley of TX/OK
to the Mid MS River Valley. A weak surface trough was oriented
from southern MS, southwest to across southeast to south-central
LA. Along this surface trough, a zone of precipitable water values
from 1.4 to 1.8 inches was aligned and considering the
intersecting surface boundary and the mid level impulse passage
riding east northeast in the flow aloft provides enough ascent to
keep the local area unsettled. Radar shows a fairly solid area of
rains streaming east northeast mainly along and north of I-10.
Little in the way of thunder at present time within the rain band
as radar returns are stratiform/low topped considering little to
no instability as mid level lapse rates are around 5.5 C/KM and
little to no convective available potential energy (CAPE). There
is however a bit of instability (surface based Cape at 1000-1500
J/KG) poking up into the western FL Panhandle which is lending
credence of thunder support so will be watching this area. Some of
the rains moderate to locally heavy, but with higher intensity
drought and elevated flash flood guidance, forecasters will hold
off on issuance of a larger areal flash flood watch. Feel any
flooding issues coming from higher rainfall rates => runoff will
be isolated and confined to areas subject to poor drainage.
Flow aloft changes little tonight with moisture axis aligned
northeast to southwest from the southern Carolinas to off the LA
coast. Some indications in the guidance that coverage of
precipitation lowers a bit by late evening before trending back up
by daybreak and into the day Tuesday as upper trough begins to
sharpen over the Plains down into TX causing upper level
support/ascent to increase along a southeastward moving cold
front. The front approaches the western zones by late in the day
Tuesday and will make passage across the I-65 corridor Tuesday
night. The better coverage of showers and storms will shift
east of I-65 by late Tuesday night/early Wed AM with the frontal
passage. May see a mix of thunder within the larger coverage of
warm sector showers Tuesday and Tuesday night as a narrow low
level H850 jet strengthens combined with 0-6km bulk shear
magnitudes increasing to 40 to 60 kts and weak instability
considering degree of cloud cover/rain. Parameters appear to be a
bit out of phase amongst solutions but enough will be present to
present a Marginal Risk of a sub-severe storm or very isolated,
brief severe storm here and there with a strong to isolated
damaging wind gust threat being the main impact in any of those.
Still could also see some moderate to locally heavy downpours and
potential isolated water issues in areas subject to poor
drainage.
Temperatures will be mild and well above normal by December
standards with highs Tuesday in the lower to mid 70s interior to
mid 70s coast. Lows will also be mild and well above normal
tonight in the lower to mid 60s interior to mid 60s coast. Lows
trend colder Tuesday night as cold air advection arrives in the
wake of the frontal passage, 37 to 42 northwest of I-65 to mid
40s east of the Interstate, southward to the coast. /10
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 9, 12:21 PM CST ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...---------------
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