ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 5:49 PM EST066
FXUS61 KILN 122249
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
549 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic airmass will remain entrenched across the region
tonight and Friday before warmer air builds into the Ohio
Valley into the upcoming weekend. Widespread rain chances
return Saturday night into Sunday, with above normal
temperatures evolving this weekend into early next week. More
rain is likely Tuesday into Wednesday before slightly cooler and
drier conditions return by the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Starting to see the first few flakes falling across eastern
Indiana as dry air saturates. Initially, shouldn't have any
travel issues because the snow will be very light and road
temperatures are near to above freezing. However, over the next
few hours, snow rates will increase and the sun will set,
allowing for road temperatures to quickly drop below freezing.
Commuters in eastern Indiana and west-central Ohio will need to
use caution later this evening. An SPS has been scheduled to
cover this threat.
The heaviest rates and most accumulation is likely along and
north of the I-70 corridor. The highest accumulations of up to
one inch will likely be in Darke, Mercer, Auglaize, and Shelby
counties. As the snow band continues to expand eastward,
frontogenesis begins to weaken, gradually decreasing the
intensity and coverage of the snow. Could still see a few tenths
in the Columbus area later this evening, leading to the
potential for slick spots. Given the cold temperatures, slick
spots will continue into Friday morning even after the snow
ends.
Otherwise, only a few linger flurries into daybreak on Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure is situated across the Great Lakes region
on Friday, providing light northeasterly to easterly flow
throughout the day. Mid-level clouds decrease into the
afternoon, but upper level clouds will already be increasing as
the next system approaches the Ohio Valley.
High temperatures are coolest across the northern half of the
region with northeasterly flow feeding cooler air southward.
Temperatures likely struggle to climb out of the 20s in the far
north with low 40s possible in the far south.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Active long term time period. Rain will overspread the region
Saturday night through Sunday. There will be a decrease in
precipitation Sunday night before another large system moves
into the region for Monday into Monday night. This system will
bring gusty winds and widespread rain to the area. Will have to
keep an eye on trends if multiple waves of rain move over the
same area will have to monitor for flooding potential.
Conditions will then briefly start to dry out before yet another
system moves into the region for Wednesday and part of
Thursday. There is more variability with this system at this
time. Cooler air will move in towards the end of the long term
with some changeover to snow possible.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Warm air advection and weak frontogenetic banding will lead to light
snowfall this evening at KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK before ending around
0400z-0600z. Overall snow rates are likely to be light since dry air
is in place. Visibility reductions are expected to remain in the
MVFR category with some IFR reductions possible at KDAY. VFR
ceilings are forecast through the overnight at all the TAF sites.
After 1200z Friday, VFR ceilings are likely to scatter for the
rest of the TAF period.
Light westerly winds are shift to the north overnight before
becoming easterly after 1200z Friday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions are likely Saturday night into
Sunday area-wide.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Campbell
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 5:49 PM EST---------------
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