MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 9, 10:22 AM CST ...New UPDATE...711
FXUS64 KMOB 091622
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1022 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
09.12Z upper analysis shows the deep south under a west/northwest
flow at high levels in the geopotential height fields. At the
surface, we are warm sectored south of a better defined, but at
this time quasi-stationary front draped from the Red River Valley
of TX/OK to the Mid MS River Valley. A weak surface trough was
oriented from southern MS, southwest to across southeast to south-
central LA. Along this surface trough, a zone of precipitable
water values from 1.4 to 1.8 inches was aligned and considering
the intersecting surface boundary and a series of mid level
impulses riding northeast in the flow aloft provides enough ascent
to keep the local area unsettled. Radar shows a fairly solid area
of rains streaming east northeast over the local area. Some of
the rains moderate to locally heavy, but with higher intensity
drought and elevated flash flood guidance, forecasters will hold
off on issuance of a larger areal flash flood watch despite
marginal/slight risk of excessive rain outlooked by WPC. Feel any
flooding issues coming from higher rainfall rates => runoff will
be isolated and confined to areas subject to poor drainage. Little
in the way of thunder at present time as radar returns are
stratiform/low topped considering little to no instability as mid
level lapse rates are around 5.5c/km and little to no convective
available potential energy. /10
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday night)
Issued at 424 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
Let the soggy first half of the week begin, as rain has already
started to overspread the western half of the area. Southwest
flow will remain in place through the day today as a upper trough
lifts into the Great Lakes. A secondary shortwave trough over
southern Texas will quickly pass through the flow today leading to
increasing broad ascent across the area this afternoon. With
PWATS ranging around 1.5 to 1.75 inches and a slowly drifting to
stalled boundary just to our north, expect rain to fill in across
the area with periods of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall
occurring throughout the afternoon. Luckily for us, we still
remain in substantial drought and while a localized nuisance
flooding problem cannot be ruled out, most of the area will just
receive a rather beneficial rain. Looking at some of the high
resolution ensemble guidance this morning points to the best area
of heaviest rainfall occurring across coastal Alabama, extreme
southeastern Mississippi and into the western Florida Panhandle
with 12 hour probability matched means ranging around 2 inches.
While those values are not rather impressive for our area, if
heavier rates can occur over the poor drainage urban areas then
some minor flooding may occur. Rain will likely subside
temporarily tonight but not fully leave the area with more
scattered showers before quickly increasing again in coverage
Tuesday morning.
The main shortwave will move in on Tuesday into Tuesday afternoon as
it eject across the central US. This will be the final push from
this system as the surface front begins to surge across the area
heading into Tuesday night. One last period of rainfall will be
likely along and ahead of the slowly advancing cold front. The best
coverage appears to occur during the afternoon as the best forcing
overspreads the area. While this trough is rather deep, its more
positive tilt and glancing blow will certainly limit the degree of
forcing across the area. However, the timing of the best forcing
will put it during peak heating that will allow for some weak
instability to develop. Profiles do not necessarily support a severe
risk; however, deep layer wind profiles could allow for some
organization of stronger storms leading to the potential for some
gustier winds. Do not expect much on the strong to severe threat but
cannot rule out a crack of thunder and some blustery conditions.
Temperatures will be mild throughout the forecast with highs
climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s today and on Tuesday. Lows
will also increase with the increasing moisture as they will likely
bottom out in the 50s to low 60s through tonight before cooling off
on Tuesday night back into the 50s as the front pushes through the
area. BB/03
EXTENDED TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 424 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
The area quickly dries out from west to east as we roll into the
day on Wednesday. Dry air surges into the area in the wake of
early week cold front, and much colder conditions will return as
well with temperatures taking a tumble Wednesday through Friday.
Daytime highs on Wednesday and Thursday only remain in the 50s
across the entire area as high pressure moves east across the
area (with clear skies and light winds). Nighttime lows will be
cold, expected to bottom out in the upper 20s to low 30s over
inland areas and the low to mid 30s closer to the coast Wednesday
night, then slightly warmer Thursday night when temps will range
from the low to mid 30s inland and upper 30s to lower 40s closer
to the coast. We will see a gradual warming trend Friday through
Sunday, with daytime highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s on
Friday, then in the 60s area-wide Saturday and Sunday. Overnight
lows Friday night and Saturday night will be in the 40s for most
locations, maybe some lower 50s at the coast by Saturday night.
PoPs increase slightly over the weekend with a 20% (no more than
30%) chance for showers as return flow sets back up as the surface
high pressure moves on off to our east. DS/12
MARINE...
Issued at 424 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
Moderate to strong onshore flow will continue through today
as seas increase. Showers and Storms will be likely today through
Wednesday morning across the marine zones before a cold front sweeps
through the marine waters by the end of the week. Strong offshore
flow will develop in the wake of the front and Small Craft Advisory
conditions will be likely by the end of the week and Gale conditions
may be possible. BB/03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 64 74 44 54 34 57 38 61 / 80 80 70 10 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 67 75 49 56 37 56 41 60 / 90 80 100 30 0 0 0 0
Destin 68 75 53 61 40 58 43 62 / 80 80 100 50 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 63 73 44 53 30 55 32 59 / 70 80 70 10 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 63 72 40 52 31 55 33 59 / 60 80 50 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 63 71 41 50 29 52 31 57 / 60 80 70 10 0 0 0 0
Crestview 64 75 47 56 30 58 32 61 / 90 80 100 40 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 9, 10:22 AM CST ...New UPDATE...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
