LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 9:13 PM EST253
FXUS63 KLMK 130213
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
913 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Unsettled weather this weekend into early next week. First period
of widespread soaking rain Saturday afternoon and Saturday night,
with another period of soaking rain Monday into Monday night.
* Precipitation will be all rain with little or no threat of
thunder. River flooding is unlikely, but ponding or nuisance
flooding is possible.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2024
Regional observations and latest SPC mesoanalysis shows a quasi-
stationary sfc front located just south of the Interstate 64
corridor as of 02Z. Convergent flow in the vicinity of the boundary
has resulted in light northerly winds to the north of the front,
while light southerly winds are observed south of the front. While
nighttime cooling has reduced the temperature gradient somewhat, a
noticeable north-south division in temperatures is still noted, with
cooler temperatures in general across the northern half of the
forecast area. The going forecast is generally on track; have
reduced temperatures in the valleys as KY Mesonet obs show the usual
enhanced cooling taking place thanks to clear skies and light winds.
As we head through the rest of the night, the upper trough to our
northeast will continue eastward, with upper ridging starting to
move into the area tomorrow morning. This will allow upper clouds
currently over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley to overspread
the region tomorrow morning. Otherwise, a dry and cool night is
expected across the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2024
Upper troughing will move off to the northeast and the stationary
front separating the high pressures over the Midwest and mid-
Appalachians will waver along the Ohio River overnight. Winds will
be calm to light overnight, helping temperatures to cool into the
mid-upper 20s north of the front and upper 20s and low 30s south of
the front. Weak troughing will approach the region in the early
morning, bringing some high clouds overhead.
On Friday, weak troughing will move over the region turning the
stationary front into a warm front. Temperatures will warm up
as WAA sets up over the region. Highs in the afternoon will be
near normal in the mid-upper 40s north of the front and upper
40s and low 50s south of the front. Moisture and cloud coverage
will increase over the region, although we will remain without
PoPs.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2024
Progressive upper pattern will result in a period of mild but active
weather this weekend and most of next week. Multiple disturbances
crossing the area will result in periodic rain events, with little
or no chance of thunder and warm enough temperatures to avoid winter
P-type issues.
Saturday will start off mild and dry under shortwave upper ridging.
A closed but progressive low will move ENE from Nebraska to Lake
Michigan by Sunday morning, with deep southerly flow developing
across the Ohio Valley. Low-level jet increasing to 50+ kt will
support widespread soaking rain, but instability is nil. Up to 1
inch of rain is possible before the upper trof axis pushes to our
east around midday Sunday.
Not very confident in any dry period following this system, as its
trailing cold front quickly lays out parallel to the flow
aloft. Precip chances remain fairly high Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night, but QPF is much lower during this period.
The next system will track across the Upper Midwest on Monday, with
a stronger low-level jet punching through the Ohio Valley. Higher
PWAT values will support QPF Monday and Monday night ranging from
just over a half inch near Lake Cumberland, to near 1.5 inches over
southern Indiana. Still not advertising any thunder due to lack of
instability.
Another batch of rain is expected on Wednesday with a progressive,
but longer upper wave moving through the region. Wet but otherwise
benign weather is expected with this system, but it does herald a
transition to a western ridge/eastern trof setup, which will knock
temps back below normal late in the week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2024
VFR conditions are expected during the current forecast period. A
stationary front is located over the region this evening, with winds
out of the NE to the north of the front and out of the south to the
south of the front. Tonight into tomorrow, this front will meander
across the region, causing winds to be light and variable through
the period. High clouds will move across the region from SW to NE
through much of the day on Friday, with ceilings expected to remain
above 15 kft.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...CSG
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 9:13 PM EST---------------
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