MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 8, 12:03 PM CST ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...053
FXUS64 KMOB 081803
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1203 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2024
...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2024
Cigs are increasing but expected to be at mid and high levels
through the remainder of the day. Shra is most developed to the
west of the local area over LA and southwest MS, with eastern
fringe possibly bringing an occurrence of -shra over MOB/BFM thru
09.00Z. Vsby expected to not be impacted. Cigs lower to MVFR
categories late tonight at MOB/BFM/JKA with probabilities of shra
increasing. Vsby could be reduced to MVFR categories in these by
and after 09.09Z. /10
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2024
08.12Z upper air analysis shows a short-wave ridge axis over the
deep south with a positive tilt southern stream mid-level trough
positioned from the TX Panhandle, southwest across the California
Baja. RAOBs show a portion of the area remaining below an inch in
precipitable water (PWAT), but back over LA, pwats have recovered
to around 1.3 to 1.5". Radar is showing precipitation breaking
out over LA and primarily lifting northeast where the flow aloft
begins to transition to more southwesterly which contains subtle
embedded impulses to aid in ascent. The western zones may see some
sprinkles or light precipitation the remainder of the day where
the gradient of better moisture is aligned. East of these areas,
appears the drier air will hold enough to prevent measurable
rain. Clouds though expected to continue to thicken. The axis of
surface high pressure was positioned over the southeast which will
allow for a more southerly and warmer component in the wind to
evolve as we progress through the near term. A wave of frontal low
pressure was positioned off the southeast TX/southwest LA coast.
The southern stream mid-level trough advances quickly east
northeast out of the Plains States tonight. At same time, wave of
surface frontal low pressure ejects quickly northeast over the
Lower MS River Valley. Within this time of transition, a zone of
deep layer moisture (PWATS increasing to 1.5 to 1.8") spreads
eastward over AL, MS, and LA. This aligned with better forcing
(surface and aloft) moving eastward over the local area tonight
results in a marked increase in PoPs. PoPs remain high Monday and
Monday night as a series of embedded mid-level impulses ride
northeast over the area in southwest flow aloft. There may be a
few rumbles of thunder as the outlook by the Storm Prediction
Center calls for a general risk considering expectation that
thermodynamics, wind, and shear profiles will be weak.
Moderate to potentially heavy rain though may be possible
throughout the day Monday into Monday night. Although we remain in
the throws of substantial drought intensities, a localized
nuisance flooding problem cannot be ruled out where higher radar
reflectivities move repeatedly over the same areas. The good news
is that most of the area looks to receive beneficial rain with
event total rains, considering what falls Tuesday, look to range 1
to 3".
Temperatures will trend more mild and well above normal.
Highs Monday, upper 60s and lower 70s interior to lower to mid
70s coast. Overnight lows, mid 50s along and north of a line from
Waynesboro MS to Crestview FL, to upper 50s/lower 60s south of
this line tonight look to mostly be in the lower to mid 60s Monday
night. /10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 8, 12:03 PM CST ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...---------------
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