LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 9:44 AM EST191
FXUS63 KLMK 121444
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
944 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Widespread showers Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, with a
half inch to 1 inch of rainfall expected. No thunder, no snow.
* Another rain event Monday and Monday night, with 0.75-1.50" of
rainfall possible. No thunder, no snow. River flooding not
expected but some minor local ponding of water may occur in poor
drainage areas.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2024
After a chilly morning, temperatures are slowly beginning to warm.
Expecting to see high temperatures in the upper 30s and low-mid 40s.
Satellite shows snow streaks over the Bluegrass where snow fell last
evening and some mid-level broken clouds moving along I-64. These
clouds will last through most of the day, keeping temperatures in
the mid-upper 30s in these areas. Forecast remains on track, just
made tweaks to sky cover with persisting broken skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 248 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2024
Today, an upper trough centered just east of the CWA will push an
area of surface high pressure across the Lower Ohio Valley. This
will cause winds to ease and become more directionally variable.
Skies will remain mostly sunny, but southern Indiana and north
central Kentucky will have some mid-level clouds pass overhead. High
temperatures will range from the low 30s near Madison, Indiana to
the mid 40s near Bowling Green, Kentucky.
Tonight, as the upper trough slides eastward, a front separating
surface high pressure over the Midwest and surface high pressure
over the Southeast will slide to near the Ohio River, but all this
front will bring is southerly winds to the southern half of
Kentucky. High-level clouds will also be on the increase over the
region. Low temperatures are expected to drop into the low 20s over
parts of southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky to
the low 30s in southern Kentucky.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2024
An active upper pattern will dominate the Long Term as a parade of
disturbances crosses the length of the country from west to east. As
each of these systems exit the Plains they'll tap into Gulf moisture
and produce swaths of rain. A corridor from east Texas through the
lower Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes and New England will be the
wettest part of the nation east of the Rockies over the next seven
days.
The extended period will start out, however, with a dry day on
Friday the Thirteenth thanks to a large, strong dome of high
pressure dominating east of the Mississippi. Though mid & high
clouds will increase over the course of the day ahead of a rain-
maker coming in for the weekend, SSE breezes and slightly rising
heights will support high temperatures from the low 40s in southern
Indiana to the low 50s in southern Kentucky.
Showers are still a good bet this weekend as low pressure travels
from Kansas to Michigan and its trailing cold front interacts with
Gulf moisture pulled northward in return flow behind high pressure
stretched out along the Appalachians. The most widespread rain will
occur from Saturday evening into Sunday morning ahead of a 5H
shortwave trough crossing the Mississippi Valley and coincident with
a 55kt low level jet from Tennessee to Indiana. A low level
inversion will keep showers elevated and winds aloft, and extremely
weak instability on soundings suggests thunder is unlikely. Lows
Saturday night will be in the middle and upper 40s, so no threat of
snow, but it will be a cold rain. Total weekend rainfall should
average around three-quarters of an inch, with about a 15% chance of
exceeding 1".
The next system will be quick on the heels of the weekend weather
maker, bringing showers to the region Monday afternoon and night.
This will be a stronger system than the previous one, but still with
very little instability and no thunder expected. This stronger
system will be more proficient pulling moisture northward with
better vapor transport, resulting in higher PWAT values and higher
QPF, on the order of 0.65-1.50" Mon-Tues morning, with the heaviest
rains Monday afternoon and evening. Not enough to raise concerns
about river flooding, but a good soaking rain nonetheless. Monday
afternoon should be breezy, with gusts of 25-30 mph possible. Lows
Monday night are progged from the upper 30s to lower 40s, so again
no snow but a cold rain.
Looks like we'll be able to squeeze in some dry weather Tuesday
night through the daylight hours Wednesday before the next bout of
precipitation moves in for Wednesday night-Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 703 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2024
The forecast remains on track. VFR conditions are expected through
the forecast period. A Mid-level cloud deck is working its way east
over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky as west winds are
beginning to ease. By the afternoon, BWG, RGA, and HNB winds are
expected to back towards the south. During the evening into the
overnight hours, the northern sites of HNB, SDF, and LEX will see
their light winds drift towards the north, then east.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRM
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...KDW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 9:44 AM EST---------------
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