CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 13, 7:18 AM EST996
FXUS61 KCLE 131218
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
718 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region today before exiting to
the east Saturday night. Several disturbances will move across
the local area late Saturday through mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM EST Update...
Lake effect snow showers are rapidly deteriorating so will let the
Lake Effect Snow Warning and Winter Weather Advisory for NE OH/NW PA
expire at 12Z/7 AM. With that being said, any untreated surfaces may
remain slippery through the morning commute so necessary precautions
should be taken. Made a few adjustments to cloud cover and PoPs
to account for latest radar and satellite, but otherwise no
changes needed with this update.
Previous Discussion...
Lake effect snow showers will persist across NE OH/NW PA
through the predawn hours before beginning to dissipate during
the day as an upper trough begins to lift northeast away from
Lake Erie and ridge builds in from the west. Have already seen
signs of weakening on radar, although when all is said and done,
an additional couple inches of snow are possible in the Winter
Weather Advisory/Lake Effect Snow Warning areas with locally
higher amounts possible where heavier snowfall rates persist.
Snowfall rates should be relatively light by the time the
morning commute rolls around since dry air is expected to build
into the mid- levels over the next couple of hours, but
continued light snowfall and frigid temperatures may result in
continued road impacts through the morning commute; will need to
keep an eye on potential for extending headlines (currently set
to expire at 12Z/7 AM) if snow/significant impacts are expected
to persist into the morning commute. Scattered and light snow
showers may persist across NW PA through this afternoon, however
expect dry weather by this evening as the ridge continues to
build east. It will be slightly warmer but still chilly today
with highs in the 20s expected. Tonight's lows will be in the
teens.
Dry weather will continue through the remainder of the near term
period with clouds increasing from the west Saturday afternoon
as a warm front approaches from the southwest. A warming trend
will finally begin to unfold Saturday with highs in the mid to
upper 30s to lower 40s expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge at the surface and aloft continues to exit slowly E'ward and
a trough at the surface and aloft approaches from the north-central
United States and vicinity Saturday night through Sunday night. A
particulary-strong shortwave disturbance progged to eject from the
trough aloft is expected to advance generally E'ward across our CWA
during Sunday afternoon through evening. Periods of precip, moderate
to heavy at times, are expected Saturday night through Sunday night
as a low-level return flow of warm/humid air originating over the
southern Gulf Stream and Gulf of Mexico undergoes isentropic ascent
aloft over our CWA. This precip will overspread our region gradually
and generally from southwest to northeast Saturday evening through
Sunday morning. It will take some time for precip to reach the
surface via the wet-bulb effect given the expectation of a dry
antecedent low-level atmospheric column.
WAA at the surface and aloft is expected to allow rain to be the
primary precip type Saturday night through Sunday night. However,
it should take some time for lingering air temperatures and
wet-bulb temperatures of 32F or slightly colder at and near the
surface to moderate Saturday night through about midday Sunday,
especially across interior NE OH and NW PA. These areas will be
located in a colder antecedent air mass. Interior NE OH and NW
PA are where precip has the greatest chance to begin as a wet
snow/freezing rain mix as an elevated melting layer develops
before precip changes to plain rain as the low-level atmospheric
column moderates further. The latest official forecast depicts
snow accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations
of a trace to a few hundredths of an inch in interior NE OH and
NW PA. We will continue to monitor forecast trends for the
potential need of a Winter WX Advisory. Elsewhere, no snow or
ice accumulations are expected since sufficient WAA at the
surface and aloft, and moderation of the low-level atmospheric
column, will likely allow precip to begin as rain or a rain/wet
snow mix Saturday night before changing to just rain by
daybreak Sunday.
The net low-level WAA will play an important role in temperatures.
Lows are expected to reach mainly the mid to upper 20's in NW PA,
the mid 20's to lower 30's in NE OH, and the lower to mid 30's
farther west Saturday evening before readings moderate slightly by
daybreak Sunday. Daytime highs are expected to reach mainly the
upper 30's to upper 40's Sunday afternoon. Lows are expected to
reach mainly the mid 30's to lower 40's around daybreak Monday.
Cyclonic SW'erly to W'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances are expected to impact our region on Monday through
Monday night. At the surface, net troughing is expected. A warm
front is expected to sweep N'ward through our CWA on Monday and be
followed by a cold front set to sweep E'ward trough our region
Monday night. Periods of rain, moderate to heavy at times, are
expected courtesy of moist isentropic ascent preceding the shortwave
trough axes and occurring along the upper-reaches of the warm front,
and low-level convergence/moist ascent along the cold front. Low-
level WAA will contribute to highs reaching the upper 40's to mid
50's Monday afternoon, ahead of the cold front. Overnight lows are
forecast to reach the 35F to 40F range around daybreak Tuesday as
net low-level CAA follows the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lingering and scattered rain showers are possible on Tuesday morning
as cyclonic W'erly flow aloft/embedded disturbances affect our CWA
and the upper-reaches of the aforementioned cold front exit E'ward.
Current odds favor fair weather the rest of Tuesday through
Wednesday morning as a narrow ridge at the surface and aloft builds
E'ward across our region and is accompanied by stabilizing
subsidence. Afternoon highs should reach the lower to mid 40's on
Tuesday and be followed by overnight lows reaching mainly the upper
20's to lower 30's around daybreak Wednesday. Forecast certainty is
low Wednesday afternoon through Thursday due to large variability in
latest forecast model guidance. In general, cyclonic W'erly flow
aloft, embedded shortwave disturbances, and net surface troughing
are expected to impact our region as the aforementioned ridge at the
surface and aloft exits E'ward. A reinforcing cold front should
sweep E'ward across our region Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
night. Periods of rain, changing to a rain/snow mix or just snow at
times, should occur due to moist isentropic ascent preceding the
shortwave disturbances' axes and via low-level convergence/moist
ascent along the cold front. Afternoon highs should reach mainly the
lower to mid 40's on Wednesday, ahead of the reinforcing cold front.
Low-level CAA behind the front should contribute to lows reaching
the mid 20's to lower 30's around daybreak Thursday and the mid to
upper 30's Thursday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Remaining lake effect snow is rapidly diminishing. Light snow
showers may continue at KCLE for the next couple of hours and
may periodically clip KERI through this morning. Any non-VFR
conditions should be confined to snow showers and maybe patches
of lower lake effect ceilings, but otherwise expect VFR through
the entire TAF period.
West to southwest winds 5 knots or less will become light and
variable before shifting to the east at around 5 knots tonight.
Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are possible Saturday night through
Monday with rain showers moving into the region.
Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are possible in periodic rain
showers Saturday night
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM today for
nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick and until 10 AM EST
today for nearshore waters from Willowick to Ripley. W'erly to
NW'erly winds around 10 to 25 knots early this morning ease to 15
knots or less by midday and then become variable around 5 knots this
afternoon through sunset this evening. Accordingly, waves as large
as 4 to 7 feet in the central and eastern basins early this morning
will subside to 3 feet or less by late this morning. Waves then
subside further to 1 feet or less by sunset this evening.
The ridge exits slowly E'ward tonight through Sunday night before a
warm front sweeps N'ward across Lake Erie on Monday. In response,
winds become E'erly to SE'erly around 5 to 15 knots tonight through
Saturday. Primarily SE'erly winds are forecast to freshen to about
10 to 20 knots Saturday night through Sunday night. These SE'erly
winds veer to S'erly on Monday in association with the
aforementioned warm front passage. Waves no larger than 3 feet are
expected in nearshore U.S. waters and no larger than 5 feet in open
U.S. waters.
S'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots veer gradually to W'erly Monday
night through Tuesday as a cold front sweeps E'ward across Lake
Erie. Waves are forecast to build to as large as 5 to 10 feet in the
central and eastern basins. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Maines
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Jaszka
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 13, 7:18 AM EST---------------
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