ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 11, 3:58 PM EST414
FXUS61 KILN 112058
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
358 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves into the area this afternoon and evening,
snow showers are expected, along with much cooler temperatures.
A warming trend is expected going into the weekend, as an area
of low pressure brings the next chance of rain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Regional radar shows the expansion and intensity of snow showers
increasing in Indiana, ahead of and along a cold front moving
in from the west. Ahead of the front, temperatures have warmed
into the mid 30s, likely reducing the impacts of any heavy snow
showers that initially occur. Over the next few hours,
temperatures will begin to cool as the activity shifts into
eastern Indiana and western Ohio. While road temperatures may
lag, any moderate to heavy bursts of snow will likely result in
a quick coating of snow, especially after sunset. An SPS is in
place mentioning the potential for slick conditions this evening
and into the overnight as the snow showers work through the
area. Surfaces may then melt the snow, increasing the potential
for refreeze as cooler air moves in.
As the front moves through, wind gusts between 30 to 40 mph are
going to be quite common area wide. More isolated gusts up to
45 mph are possible, especially in eastern Indiana and western
Ohio.
After the primary burst of winds move through, wind gusts
settle into the 25 to 35 mph range into Thursday morning. In
combination with the surge of cold air moving in, wind chill
values between zero and five below are expected along the I-70
corridor and north. To the south of this area, values from 0 to
10 degrees are more likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure builds southeastward into the Ohio Valley
Thursday, allowing for winds to gradually decrease into the
evening hours. Temperatures are below normal for afternoon
highs despite the mostly sunny conditions.
While high pressure would typically bring quiet conditions,
increasing clouds will be noticeable Thursday afternoon and
early evening. A weak shortwave pivoting through the base of the
mid-level trough provides enough lift within the cool conditions
supporting the potential for a band of snow. Initially, dry air
would limit snow accumulations, but the residence time of the
lift supports light accumulations wherever the band becomes
established. In addition, forecast soundings are favorable with
a deep dendritic growth layer within the area of weak forcing.
Given temperatures are in the teens to lower 20s, a mention was
added in the HWO for the likelihood of slick conditions into
Friday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry conditions will start out the long term. Models continue to
struggle with timing of the weekend system, however they have
in general slowed the onset. There will be some WAA on Friday,
however there will be a range in temperatures with highs below
freezing on Friday across the far northern portions of the
region and then in the 40s near and south of the Ohio River.
Warmer air will move in for Saturday with highs in the 40s to
around 50 degrees. Rain will start to move in late in the day on
Saturday, with more widespread rainfall Saturday night into
Sunday.
There will be a decrease in precipitation overnight Sunday
night, however this will be short lived as a strong storm system
will approach on Monday. Widespread rain and gusty winds will
move into the region Monday night. Increased wind gusts at this
time, however will have to monitor trends as some models are
indicating some stronger wind gusts. Depending on how quickly
precipitation moves out of the region, there will be the
potential for some snowfall going into Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The expected period of dry conditions has settled in over the
area and will continue for another few hours. Snow shower
activity observed across Indiana/Illinois is moving eastward
with no changes made to timing from the previous forecast.
Snow showers will be capable of producing MVFR conditions for
sure, with IFR visibilities possible in some of the heavier
showers. Increasing winds are beginning to be observed, with
gusts in the 25-30 knot range expected after 02Z. Some slightly
stronger gusts (30-35 knots) are possible for Dayton and
Columbus.
Wind gusts linger Thursday morning with prevailing VFR
restrictions.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions for DAY/CMH/LCK possible Thursday
evening due to snow. MVFR to IFR conditions are possible
Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/McGinnis
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...McGinnis
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 11, 3:58 PM EST---------------
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