LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 8, 6:01 PM CST ...New AVIATION...374
FXUS64 KLIX 090001
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
601 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2024
Tonight through Tuesday night, multiple round of rainfall are
anticipated as a slow moving cold front progresses through the
area. The first round is currently moving through the area with
light to moderate rainfall and will persist through around 8-10p
this evening. There looks to be a lull in the rainfall expected
overnight tonight through around 10am tomorrow where some light
rain is possible, but not much beyond that as the main forcing
from round 1 moves off to the northeast. Some Gulf moisture acts
as an impulse to fire off the lingering boundary from the system
Monday from around 10a through 8p. This is the round that has the
bulk of the heavy rainfall expected over the next several days.
Beyond Monday night, a couple more rounds of light to moderate
stratiform rainfall will be possible, but exact timing is still
quite uncertain as it depends on how rounds 1 and 2 pan out.
Generally for the event as a whole tonight through Tuesday morning,
1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected with locally higher amounts
of 2 to 4 inches likely. Additional rainfall is expected on
Tuesday as well. We are outlooked in a Slight Risk for Heavy
Rainfall for our entire southshore areas, northshore areas, and
the MS coastal areas for Monday into Monday night. Since PW values
are quite high (Above the 90th percentile) along with parallel
flow aloft and slow- moving system, rainfall will likely be fairly
efficient inside stronger storms. The main limiting factor will
be the instability, which may be a little lacking. We have
overcome low instability for flooding events in the past and
recent trends in the models show decent/adequate instability
around 500 J/kg. As a result, flash flooding and minor to moderate
street flooding will be certainly possible, especially for
vulnerable urban areas along where the axis of heaviest rainfall
sets up (which in the models is anywhere from I-55 to Pearl River
and east).
Predominantly, Houma, Thibodaux, and the New Orleans metro areas
are of particular concern along with the MS Coastal towns/cities
as these areas generally struggle to handle higher rainfall rates
(1+"/hr rates). Additionally of note for this particular system,
there is a localized higher concern for flash flooding for the
rural areas in the MS Counties as well due to the antecedent
drought conditions, newly hard packed soil due to recent cold
conditions, and lower vegetation this time of year, all of which
will act to enhance runoff and flooding concerns. So, these are
all the areas that will be watched the most closely over the next
couple of days. A Flood Watch has been issued due to the increased
risk of flash flooding for the Southshore/northshore areas and MS
Coastal Counties Monday morning 6a through noon on Tuesday. This
may need to be extended depending on the conditions developing
tomorrow. MSW
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2024
Once this system moves through Wednesday through the end of the
week will be fairly dry overall. Temperatures will be fairly cool
behind the front. Low temperatures will likely be coldest on
Thursday morning with lows around freezing possible for areas
north of the I-10/I-12 corridor. A warming trend will then begin
through the weekend with highs generally in the mid 50s to mid 60s
and lows in the low to mid 40s for the rest of the week. MSW
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2024
The most notable rain activity is currently ongoing over the NW
portions of the area, including at BTR. Short-range models depict
this rain to last until 07-09z when it becomes more scattered in
nature. Although that band becomes more scattered, scattered
activity will pick up across the whole area at that time. This
activity will remain off and on until 12z when the activity picks
up in response to better thermodynamics and the approaching front.
Expect this widespread rain and LIFR to IFR ceilings to stick
around as the front stalls over the area tomorrow afternoon and
evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2024
Multiple rounds of storms will be moving through the area over the
next several days. Mostly benign and southerly winds will persist
through Wednesday. However, some increased winds (15-25kts) and
seas will be expected tomorrow with that round of storms, mainly
for our southwesternmost outer waters. A small craft advisory is
in effect for those areas tomorrow. After that, marine conditions
area-wide calm to moderate (10-15kts) and southerly through
Wednesday. Wednesday into Thursday, winds and seas will be
increased (20-30kts) and northerly on the backside of the frontal
system. Conditions will calm by Thursday morning and winds will
remain moderate (10-15kts) and northerly to easterly Thursday
through Saturday morning. MSW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 60 71 61 69 / 100 80 80 60
BTR 66 76 65 74 / 90 80 80 50
ASD 62 72 62 74 / 70 90 70 80
MSY 64 73 64 74 / 60 90 70 80
GPT 62 69 61 72 / 50 90 80 90
PQL 60 74 62 76 / 30 80 80 90
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for
LAZ039-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday
for GMZ570-572.
MS...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for
MSZ077-083>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday
for GMZ572.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 8, 6:01 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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