MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 6, 5:33 PM CST ...New AVIATION...358
FXUS64 KMOB 062333
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
533 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2024
VFR conditions persist through the forecast cycle. Light
northerly winds will gradually shift northeasterly and then
easterly through the period. /22
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday Night)
Issued at 358 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2024
Dry. Dewpoints are hovering in the teens to low 20s area-wide this
afternoon as very dry air continues to filter into the region. A
surface high settles into the Southeast through Saturday night,
allowing for the northerly winds to relax and eventually turn more
easterly late Saturday night. Moisture levels slowly begin to
tick upward as we roll through Saturday afternoon and evening as
the winds begin to turn. The bigger uptick in moisture levels
occurs next week.
That being said, it's mostly a temperature forecast through
Saturday night as there is zero chance for rain between now and
then. Given that the surface high is sliding toward the region
this evening with winds relaxing overnight, we opted to nudge the
overnight low temperatures down by a few degrees. We didn't
completely tank the temperatures given that there will be some
high clouds streaming into our area overnight, which should
prevent temperatures from reaching the threshold for a Cold
Weather Advisory. Expect lows to bottom out in the mid 20s
generally north of the Highway 84 corridor with upper 20s to low
30s across the rest of our inland communities and mid to upper 30s
along the immediate coastline. Communities north of I-10 should
brace for approximately 9-13 hours of temperatures at or below
freezing tonight. Tomorrow will features slightly (emphasis on
slightly) warmer temperatures than today as highs top out in the
50s inland with low 60s at the beaches. Despite the calm
conditions on Saturday night, overnight lows will be a solid 8-10
warmer than tonight given the increasing cloud cover and
increasing moisture levels.
Beach Note: The risk for rip currents remains LOW through Saturday
night as surf heights fall to around 1 foot. 07/mb
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 358 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2024
Southwesterly flow aloft develops on Sunday as the leading wave
in a train of southern stream shortwaves begins to eject quickly
to the northeast. PWATs, in response to this and southeasterly
winds at the surface, quickly increase to around 1.5 to 1.8 inches
by the Sunday night/Monday timeframe. At the surface, a weakening
boundary will move in starting Sunday night, bringing along with
it numerous to widespread showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms. As the upper-level support from the lead shortwave
quickly lifts away from the local area, the surface boundary will
begin losing momentum and will likely stall somewhere over the
local region on Monday (probably near the I-65 corridor). Multiple
shortwaves will continue to move along this stalled boundary,
bringing several more rounds of rain to the area through Tuesday.
By this point, an amplifying longwave trough over the central US
quickly dives southeastward. This will send a strong cold front
through the area Tuesday night, with a much colder/drier airmass
building in by Wednesday and through the remainder of the period.
Throughout the Sunday night through Tuesday night timeframe,
instability values appear to remain quite low due to limited
diurnal heating and poor lapse rates. This should help to keep
storms sub- severe through the period. The primary concern will be
the multiple rounds of rainfall. Most of this rainfall will be
beneficial due to the ongoing drought across the area, however,
with the possibility of localized swaths of heavy rainfall rates
(due to the high PWAT values and the stalled surface boundary), a
few instances of flooding cannot be ruled out, especially in our
urban/poor drainage areas.
Temperatures will be mild for the first half of the period, with
highs on Monday and Tuesday topping out in the low to mid 70s.
After the front passes on Tuesday night, highs will drop into the
low to mid 50s. Lows will also drop into the 20s and 30s for
Wednesday and Thursday nights. The rip current risk will be
moderate through midweek. /96
MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2024
No impacts expected through Sunday. Onshore flow increases to
Exercise Caution levels with building seas Sunday night through at
least mid-week. 07/mb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 32 59 41 68 59 73 62 73 / 0 0 0 10 30 80 80 90
Pensacola 37 60 47 69 61 75 66 74 / 0 0 0 0 20 60 80 90
Destin 40 61 49 68 62 75 67 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 50 80 90
Evergreen 26 58 35 66 53 73 62 73 / 0 0 0 10 30 80 90 90
Waynesboro 28 55 36 64 55 70 60 71 / 0 0 0 30 70 90 80 80
Camden 25 54 34 64 52 70 59 71 / 0 0 0 20 60 90 90 90
Crestview 28 62 35 69 52 74 63 75 / 0 0 0 0 10 60 80 90
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 6, 5:33 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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