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996 FXUS64 KLIX 080908AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA308 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)Issued at 248 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2024There is no evidence that any of the activity associated with this scenario will be sfc based. Even getting lightning will be tough but possible well inland and where it shows up will be with the heaviest rainfall. The most lightning activity that occurs should be closer to the coast. That just leaves elevated deep convective bursts via dynamic contributions. There is a weak boundary that is best seen in the thetaE lapse rate field between 850-600mb. The 850mb high and the sfc high will be to the east helping to bring moisture from deep in the gulf up to this boundary, but the main lift will come from the H3 jet. All this moisture will move up and over the lower thetaE air at the sfc providing more of an isentropic lifting situation with more of a tilt to the isentropic layers brought about by the layer lifting from the jet. The first of these jet pulses(disturbances) is currently starting to take shape this morning and is starting to show some radar echoes over the gulf from near Freeport TX due south. The rest of the light rain that is showing up over southern TX is gentle lift over subtle isentropic surfaces with help from the synoptic H3 jet. The sfc low and attendant weak boundary is located just west of this line of developing sh/ts and is responsible for connecting the sfc variables to the upper jet flow. This moisture will simply spread northward becoming elevated over land areas today and eventually spread over our NW zones by afternoon. There will be some light showers around before the moderate to heavy stuff gets to these zones today, but the heaviest rainfall for the NW areas should be between 3p and 10p today. This linear feature will not just dissipate but won't be as intense once this pulse moves NE this evening and will continue slowly sinking southeast. The second pulse, which looks to be the strongest, comes in Monday just before noon. Again, there will be light showers around before and after this pulse too, but the heaviest rain with this one should start just before noon Monday through about 7p. And since, the jet will have sunk a bit farther southeast, this pulse will impact areas mainly over the SE portion of the CWA.&&.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)Issued at 248 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2024A third and final pulse should begin moving through early Tuesday. This one looks to be weaker and should enhance the light rain around the area into moderate rainfall. The timing with this is a bit more guess work but looks to be from 3a to around noon Tue. The cold front begins to enter the picture while this pulse is moving out and will be able to keep some of the linear light to moderate rainfall going until it moves all this out over the gulf by late Tue afternoon. Totals of 1 to 3 inches should be common with isolated higher amounts possible. Once the front moves through, strong winds will carry CAA and DAA along with it bringing highs back into the 50s by Wed and Thu and freezing temps for northshore areas for Wed night. A warming trend should take hold by the end of this week.&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 248 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2024VFR should be the rule through this morning but cigs will begin to slowly lower through the day and we should have all sites in MVFR levels shortly after noon today. These conditions will remain as some -SHRA moves through as well. Cigs will slowly lower through the night hours bringing most if not all sites to IFR levels by midnight or shortly after. The heaviest rainfall will be timed in the this taf pack but there will be -SHRA moving through from time to time later today through tonight.&&.MARINE...Issued at 248 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2024South winds will begin to rise to around 20kt ahead of the next system tonight into early Monday. Headlines will be raised for these conditions, but should be short lived until after the front passes through the northern gulf late Tue night or Wed with strong NW winds around 20-30kt. This should last into Thu before easing.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 65 60 70 61 / 80 90 90 80 BTR 71 65 75 65 / 80 90 90 80 ASD 70 62 71 62 / 30 60 90 80 MSY 72 65 71 64 / 30 60 90 80 GPT 68 61 70 61 / 20 60 80 80 PQL 71 60 74 62 / 20 50 80 80 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ570-572.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ572.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....TEAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
