IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 8, 5:41 AM EST149
FXUS63 KIWX 081041
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
541 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer temperatures today and Monday.
- Chances for rain and drizzle tonight and Monday.
- Cold air returns Tuesday through Thursday as temperatures fall
back below freezing.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2024
In the short term did kick low temperatures overnight and high
temperatures today up a few degrees, which may still be a tad
underdone, above guidance with increased WAA and increased
moisture advection in place ahead of a southern stream
disturbance that will move into the Ohio River Valley late
tonight and a clipper system passing north into the Lake
Superior region. Dew points will increase into the upper 30s to
low 40s today. Forecasted highs today, most locations will see
around the 50 degree mark with the higher temps in far southern
portions of the CWA around the 55 degree mark. Winds will still
be breezy at times but will generally be on the downward trend
through today. Late today into Monday morning will see increased
chances of drizzle and light rain showers with the incoming
disturbances and the convergence between the southern stream and
northern stream systems. Monday's highs will also be in the low
50s for most locations with the exception being in the upper
40s for southern MI counties, however will have to monitor how
today plays out as further forecast temperature adjustments may
be required for Monday as well, but sky cover could limit
further warming.
A break in precipitation is still expected in the wake of these
first system passages Monday night into Tuesday morning but
another arctic low will drop southward out of Hudson Bay into
the Great Lakes regions which will bring another taste of cold
with temperatures dropping Tuesday as a cold front pushes
through. This system will also bring another chance at
precipitation which will likely start out as a mix on Tuesday
night and switch over to all snow early Wednesday morning with
lows that morning in the 20s. Colder air yet will push in
by Wednesday evening with highs only in the mid to upper 20s on
Wednesday and by Thursday morning will be in the teens to even
the single digits for our southwestern portions of the CWA as
further north there will be some moderation with lake
temperatures still around 40 degrees. This will also allow for
LES showers to also kick in late Wednesday through Thursday
night for areas in close proximity and further eastward near the
IN/MI border areas once again.
By Friday, a warming trend will arrive with shortwave ridging
ahead of another southern stream disturbance moving through the
Plains begins to move into the region which will allow highs on
Friday into the 30s and then over the weekend highs will get
into the 40s once again. A chance of rain showers will also
accompany the disturbance next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2024
VFR conditions persist through 00Z Mon, with deteriorating
conditions thereafter as rapid moistening occurs ahead of a
series of waves. IFR cigs and vsbys will settle in near/after 6Z
with mainly drizzle/fog at KSBN and drizzle transitioning to
showers at KFWA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Fisher
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 8, 5:41 AM EST---------------
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