PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 8, 11:47 AM CST155
FXUS63 KPAH 081747
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1147 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Initial rain chances onset by this evening and run overnight
into Monday morning. After a brief pause, another bout is
possible Monday night into Tuesday. Storm total rainfall looks
to range from about a third of an inch in our northwest-most
reaches, upward to nearly an inch in our far southeast.
- A cold front's passage shuts the precipitation off and draws
in much colder air for the latter half of the week.
- Temperatures rebound closer to seasonal norms again heading
into next weekend, when small rain chances return.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2024
The models/blend are coming into agreement on our soon to arrive
rain system. Onset timing is settling in on a late
afternoon/early evening arrival, as southerly low level flow
ahead of a developing trof pushes a pool of moisture this way
in advance of its approach. By mid-late evening, all should see
some wet weather for at least a few hours. That responsible
trof flattens and becomes enveloped within the broader
westerlies by Monday morning, as the pcpn shield is pushed thru
the area and to the east; the trof loses its identity by then.
This initial bout of rain then is a primarily tonight-Monday
morning event. The models are also settling on the projected
mean storm total qpf, with about a third of an inch in our
northwest, to almost an inch in our far southeast. The Grand
DESI/LREF indicates the chances of rainfall exceeding 1" at less
than 30% along the southern Pennyrile near the TN border, where
the max pcpn should occur. This should pose little to no
negative impacts and the WPC ERO MRGNL risk area reflects that,
staying just to our south.
Within the warm/moist advection zone, we'll see temps climb
above normal again both today and tmrw, with highs averaging
55-60F degrees as H8 temps hover around 8-9C. Dew points may
reach into the lower 50s at best, in our far south/east.
After a brief pause in pops Monday afternoon, we'll see another
area of low pressure develop and swirl a 2nd albeit weaker pool
of moisture across the area, particularly our southern-most
counties. This may contribute another 1 to 2 tenths of an inch
of rainfall thru Tuesday morning, when a cold front makes
passage and brings an abrupt end to pcpn chances. The cold front
will bring another blast of cold air, and as it does so, the
ending rain may mix with or change to some light snow/flurries
briefly just before its complete shut-off, as H8 temps plunge
below 0C with a cold pool of -7 to -10C rotating overhead by
Wednesday morning. This will drop highs/lows into the 40s/20s
for the latter half of the week, with coldest temps Wednesday-
Wednesday night, when some 30s highs and upper teens lows will
be possible across our north.
Dry/cold high pressure holds then shifts east by next weekend,
when the flow goes zonal again and low level southerlies return
around the backside of the by then departed high. That'll help
us rebound to more seasonal 50s/30s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2024
MVFR ceilings and scattered light showers have already arrived
at KPAH and KCGI well ahead of previous expectations. Generally
went with a quicker downward trend and onset of more persistent
rain this afternoon and evening. All sites will see an extended
period of IFR ceilings and LIFR ceilings are a good bet
tonight. Visibility should hang at MVFR levels until more of a
drizzle event gets going with potential IFR visibilities late
this evening and overnight. Improvement of ceilings in the
morning will be slower than most guidance indicates.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 8, 11:47 AM CST---------------
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