ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 10, 3:38 AM EST767
FXUS61 KILN 100838
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
338 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region today, with a chance
for rain, eventually changing to light snow tonight. Cold air
will move into the area for the next several days, with
additional chances for snow showers on Wednesday, and temperatures
well below normal on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The main concern this morning is the potential for fog near and
north of the Interstate 70 corridor. A large expanse of
stratocumulus clouds has been moving northward through the ILN
forecast area, and visibilities have been generally manageable
underneath these clouds. However, in the clear skies to the
north, there has been a reduction in visibility -- with several
observation sites recording 1/4SM. Have issued a Special Weather
Statement to handle this patchy dense fog, and it is not out of
the question that an advisory may be needed. However, the
continued expanding of the clouds around the area may end up
precluding this from becoming a prolonged issue.
Looking at the rest of the day today, a cold front is moving
southeast toward the Ohio Valley. As of 2AM, this front is just
about to clear through the Chicago area. With some upper jet
support and an increase in 850mb theta-e ahead of a sharpening
trough, showers are expected to develop between 12Z-15Z and move
northeast through the area. Precip chances look greatest in the
eastern two-thirds of the forecast area. Despite cooling
temperatures as a result of the incoming cold front,
temperatures appear warm enough to keep things all rain through
00Z.
As the cold front approaches the area, a weak area of surface
low pressure will also be developing, further tightening the
temperature gradient. Highs will be in the upper 50s in the far
southeastern CWA (Portsmouth OH) and mid 40s in the northwestern
CWA (Celina OH).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The overall mid-level pattern will continue to amplify and
sharpen this evening, with a well-defined upstream trough moving
through the Missouri and into Illinois by Wednesday morning. As
this is occurring, cold advection will be going on at the
surface through the Ohio Valley, on the back side of the Tuesday
cold front. Temperatures will become cold enough to support snow
by late Tuesday night, but this time frame will also be
coincident with a relative minimum in forcing. Some light
precipitation is possible through 12Z Wednesday, but many
locations will remain dry.
At around 12Z, however, an increase in upper forcing will result
in a band of snow developing somewhere across the area,
translating eastward with time. Some light snow accumulations
(generally under a half inch) are possible in the eastern half
of the ILN CWA from 12Z-18Z on Wednesday.
The pressure gradient will be increasing on Wednesday, with
westerly winds gusting into the 20-25 knot range by afternoon.
While the early to mid afternoon hours may be another relative
minimum in precipitation, another approaching cold front will
bring snow showers to the area late Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening -- as detailed in the Long Term section below.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front will be just entering the area at the beginning of
the period and will rapidly sweep through on Wednesday evening.
Expect scattered snow showers to occur along the front with the
potential for localized rapid drops in visibility. Any
accumulations will be pretty light. Road temperatures will
likely be above freezing when the snow showers occur, but any
bursts of snow could cause pavement to drop below freezing and
result in slick spots to develop.
In the wake of the front, winds will increase with gusts to 40
mph during the evening and then decreasing a bit during the
overnight hours although still with some gustiness. Temperatures
will fall to between 10 and 20 by daybreak Thursday and wind
chill will be in the single digits either side of zero.
Temperatures will only recover into the 20s to lower 30s on
Thursday even though there will be sun. The winds will continue
to gust over 20 mph making it brisk. And it will remain cold
through Thursday night but winds will become light as high
pressure moves off to the east.
The mid level flow will become more zonal through the rest of
the period with a couple of systems of Pacific origin
transversing the continent. Some timing uncertainty persists
with the lead short wave coming through either Saturday or
Saturday night. Temperatures will have rebounded to a bit above
normal by the time precipitation arrives, so this will bring
rain to the area. High pressure will translate across the area
on Sunday but then the next system will be pushing into the
region on Monday with another chance of rain.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An area of MVFR ceilings is moving northeast into the area, and
will envelop all of the TAF sites over the next couple hours.
Some visibility reductions (MVFR primarily) are also expected.
A brief period of IFR visibilities may occur just before these
clouds arrive.
The MVFR ceilings will lower to IFR this morning. Patchy
showers will develop and move into the area this morning,
possibly lasting into the afternoon. These showers may provide
some MVFR visibilities, but ceilings at this point will be
solidly IFR, which will remain the bigger aviation concern.
There will be some improvement in ceilings around 00Z tonight,
but additional precipitation will eventually begin to develop,
especially closer to 06Z. Some of this may end up becoming snow.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions are likely to continue through
Wednesday, with some snow possible on Wednesday. Gusty winds up
to 35 knots possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
MVFR to IFR conditions are possible Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hatzos
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 10, 3:38 AM EST---------------
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