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983 FXUS64 KLIX 070945AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA345 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)Issued at 257 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024Some shower activity will move in from the west today with most of the activity decaying as it moves east and most of it becoming virga, so we will keep very low precip chances for today not to say one won't see any sprinkles of rain, it's more to say we don't expect it to measure. NE winds will become E and finally SE over the weekend. A sfc low is developing near the coast of Brownsville this morning which will eventually slowly move north. This sfc low will activate the old frontal boundary over the gulf as a warm front by tonight which will move through our area Sunday. There will be some showers and possibly some patchy fog around as this boundary moves north. The H3 jet flowing out of the EastPac will move very slowly eastward over the coming days with embedded disturbances moving through. These disturbances will be responsible for producing the shots of moderate to heavy rainfall starting Sunday night. These disturbances in the main jet flow will be well ahead of the actual cold front.&&.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)Issued at 257 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024A few disturbances will move over our area as a new front begins to move east out of the plains late Sunday into Monday. This will be the time of heaviest rainfall associated with this system, Sun night into Mon. As the cold front catches up with the upper jet, they will help each other in producing a new line of rainfall, but will be progressive by this time, which should be Monday night into Tuesday. This additional accululation would not normally be an issue, but the area will have been saturated in many locations and any additional on Tuesday could be an issue as well. These type of systems are sluggish and slow which is the reason they produce a lot of training, but the good thing is they are not coupled with a sfc front or trough, so the severe wx is held to a minimum. But this coupling does occur as the front moves to the eastern portion of the area late Tue. Totals of 3 to 4 inches with isolated higher amouns will be possible from Sunday through Tue. Depending on where the H3 jet sets up and slowly creeps eastward, will decide which areas get the most precip. Once the front moves through, strong winds will carry CAA and DAA along with it bringing highs back into the 50s by Wed and Thu and freezing temps for northshore areas for Wed night and Thu night. A warming trend should take hold by the end of next week as we move up and down the thermal roller coaster.&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 257 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024VFR this taf pack. Cigs will move in and lower slowly through today and tonight but should remain VFR until around sunrise Sunday when some MVFR cigs move in. Not high enough chances of rain to show in taf set but a few --SHRA will be possible mainly tonight into Sun morning. &&.MARINE...Issued at 257 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024Winds will begin to turn easterly today and finally SErly tonight into Sun. As winds come around to the S, they will begin to rise ahead of the next system late Sun into Monday. Some showers and a few storms will be possible Mon through Tue ahead of the next cold front that should move through the northern gulf late Tue night or Wed with strong NW winds around 20-30kt. This should last into Thu before easing. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 56 44 66 60 / 10 20 50 90 BTR 60 50 73 65 / 10 20 40 80 ASD 60 46 71 62 / 0 10 20 50 MSY 59 53 72 65 / 0 10 20 40 GPT 60 46 69 60 / 0 10 10 40 PQL 63 43 72 60 / 0 0 10 30 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....TEAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
