ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 8, 2:50 PM EST330
FXUS61 KILN 081950
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
250 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A mid level disturbance will move northeast across the region
tonight into Monday, bringing widespread rain. Chances for rain
will increase once again on Tuesday as an advancing cold front
interacts with a wave of low pressure. A deepening mid level
trough will then dig southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing a chance of rain
and snow. Above normal temperatures will trend to much below
readings later in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A mid level low over the southern Plains will move northeast
into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. As it does, deeper moisture
will be pulled northward from the Gulf. Dynamic lift from the
the mid level system will combine with a modest low level
southwesterly jet to bring widespread rain to the region. Thus,
clouds will increase/thicken from southwest to northeast this
evening, followed by widespread rain. It will remain mild with
continued southerly surface flow. Lows will mainly be in the
40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The mid level low will have opened up into a s/wv on Monday
morning as it continues its journey northeast. Widespread rain
will taper off as the feature exits. Total rainfall amounts will
range between 0.50 to 0.75 inches. Our forecast area will then
be left with shallow moisture from the late morning and into the
afternoon hours, remaining in a regime of weak WAA ascent. This
setup may produce some patches of light rain and/or drizzle.
Despite the cloud cover, temperatures will warm into the 50s.
For Monday night, we should see a lull in terms of pcpn
chances. A cold front will be slowly advancing southeast which
will move into our area. Models have been showing a signal of
possible low clouds and/or fog development where the front ends
up, likely allowing fog to form due to weak wind flow and high
level boundary layer moisture for December. Have placed a
mention of patchy fog in the forecast for now. Lows will range
from the upper 30s northwest to the upper 40s southeast.
On Tuesday, a digging mid level trough will begin to encroach
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Large scale ascent aloft is
expected to develop a wave of low pressure along the advancing
front. This will spread rain back into the region, most likely
along and southeast of the I-71 corridor. Highs will vary from
the lower 40s northwest to the upper 50s southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deeper moisture will try to push out early in the period but
the trend from most of our medium range guidance is to hold
moisture and precip up as a wave forms along our cold front and
approaches the Ohio Valley. As colder air continues to slide in
this will cause a mix with and eventually change to light snow
from west to east Tuesday Night. The big forecast challenge and
source of uncertainty revolves around how strong the eventual
surface wave will be and how far west
frontogenetical/deformation snow can push into our area as the
surface wave tracks to our east. The system is being forced by a
very strong upper trough which is taking on a negative tilt as
it crosses us. Looking at the various ensemble and deterministic
data anything from a quick exit of widespread precip wednesday
morning to a swath of accumulating snow over our eastern areas
is in play at this point. We'll continue to fine tune this the
next few days and for now we're carrying lower PoPs Wednesday
along with some light snow accumulation. After any synoptic snow
moves out very cold 850 mb temperatures and lingering moisture
will keep flurries and light snow showers going until much drier
air pushes in later in the week.
Our weather looks mainly dry late week before the next system
approaches on Friday Night. Latest guidance suggests some light
precip, possibly snow or even a wintry mix, will be possible as
moisture returns. Not seeing major impacts or amounts at this
time and expecting a quick rebound above freezing by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 23Z, high pressure at the surface and aloft will move
east. Some lower to mid clouds will encroach locations near and
south of the Ohio River. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots will
gust up to 25 knots at times.
For tonight, a mid level low pressure system over the southern
Plains will eject northeast into the lower Ohio Valley. Deeper
moisture, a southwest modest low level jet, and upper level lift
will result in a shield of widespread rain. This rain shield
will overspread the region overnight. This will lead to lowering
conditions. Ceilings will eventually lower into the IFR/LIFR
category. Visibilities will remain mainly MVFR, except during a
period of moderate rain where they could drop into the IFR
category. Winds will be from the south between 6 and 12 knots
with local gusts up to 20 knots possible.
On Monday, mid level low will have transitioned over to a mid
level disturbance. Widespread rain will move out of the region
during the morning hours. IFR/LIFR ceilings will remain with
MVFR visibilities. There could be some patchy drizzle given
shallow moisture and weak ascent in the WAA pattern.
By Monday afternoon, ceilings will try to lift back to MVFR
(eventually above 2000 feet). Visibilities will improve back to
VFR. There could be a lingering low chance of light rain or
patchy drizzle. Winds will continue from the south around 10
knots with local gusts up to 20 knots possible.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities likely Monday
night into Tuesday morning. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities
likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. MVFR ceilings
likely to linger into Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Johnstone
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 8, 2:50 PM EST---------------
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